Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m just surprised to see a model solution this far west into Texas... obviously it could very well be correct in the end, but it just looks to me like the Bermuda high should keep steering this thing and if it does the most likely outcome would be western or central Louisiana.
Lol.....in the past I would say "we will know 3 days prior"....now I say "we'll know the day before".....be ready for anything...
I’m just surprised to see a model solution this far west into Texas... obviously it could very well be correct in the end, but it just looks to me like the Bermuda high should keep steering this thing and if it does the most likely outcome would be western or central Louisiana.
I’m far from an expert, but I can say that the shearing that tore Marco apart earlier today is exiting the Gulf and an area of very calm winds aloft is moving in... that plus the water temperatures of 85-87 degrees throughout the Gulf is a perfect set up to intensify a hurricane rapidly.I have a question for experts. If Marco fell apart because of bad contions why will laura get stronger in the same place?
ThanksI’m far from an expert, but I can say that the shearing that tore Marco apart earlier today is exiting the Gulf and an area of very calm winds aloft is moving in... that plus the water temperatures of 85-87 degrees throughout the Gulf is a perfect set up to intensify a hurricane rapidly.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 242044
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020
...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH....
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne for areas outside of the southeast Louisiana
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Port Bolivar, Texas, to
west of Morgan City, Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from south of Port Bolivar to
San Luis Pass Texas and from Morgan City to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River.
The Tropical Storm Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac has
been discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and
Las Tunas has been discontinued.
They mentioned the EPS being way left too
The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a
little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is
located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that
uncertainty regarding the track forecast remainsView attachment 47138
I’m far from an expert, but I can say that the shearing that tore Marco apart earlier today is exiting the Gulf and an area of very calm winds aloft is moving in... that plus the water temperatures of 85-87 degrees throughout the Gulf is a perfect set up to intensify a hurricane rapidly.
18z GFS has it making landfall as a 954 MB hurricane on the Louisiana coast.
18z HWRF.....slightly west compared to previous run.....aligned with Icon and GFS. 929 prior to landfall......staying consistent with the 930ish idea...
View attachment 47156
So we've gotAdd ~30 mb to these consistent HWRF 930ish pressures and I think that will be in the ballpark of actual pressure at landfall with 950 on the low end. Still a very dangerous storm obviously and surge/rainfall may be really high, too.
So we've got
EURO 988
Icon 968
GFS. 953
UK. 954
HWRF 929
NAM. 890
Joe B. Is right. Three days away and we really don't know what to tell people.....this could be anywhere between nothing and a beast....
So we've got
EURO 988
Icon 968
GFS. 953
UK. 954
HWRF 929
NAM. 890
Joe B. Is right. Three days away and we really don't know what to tell people.....this could be anywhere between nothing and a beast....
Have to think something in the 960-970 range seems likely. I'll be interested to see where we are around 18z tomorrow when most models really start taking off.So we've got
EURO 988
Icon 968
GFS. 953
UK. 954
HWRF 929
NAM. 890
Joe B. Is right. Three days away and we really don't know what to tell people.....this could be anywhere between nothing and a beast....
Do you think theres a chance of a east shift in the models before landfall? That's a sharp right hook and it wouldn't take much for something to change that trackHave to think something in the 960-970 range seems likely. I'll be interested to see where we are around 18z tomorrow when most models really start taking off.
I doubt it unless it really struggles to get going even then central La coast is as far east as I could see. The real potential error is left to me and this thing inching closer to Houston.Do you think theres a chance of a east shift in the models before landfall? That's a sharp right hook and it wouldn't take much for something to change that track
We laughed at the HWRF...
We laughed at the HWRF...
Except, this time, conditions in the Gulf have looked favorable for solid intensification. I am really concerned that a particularly dire situation developing. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is sub 940 and strengthening into the coast, unless some miracle dry air appears or it interacts more than expected with Cuba or we get an ERC close to shore.Even a blind squirrel. Remember when it had Gonzalo as like a 930mb in the islands?
I just hope the NHC is right and it stays east of Houston
I just hope the NHC is right and it stays east of Houston