Philstorm91
Member
I hope I'm wrong, but it's not out of the question Houston could see a direct hit from a major hurricane at this point. The trends today will be important to watch.
Did it have shear? That clear eye stadium effect at landfall was the best ever photographed from the ground of any hurricane on record.
The HWRF always has the most apocalyptic scenario06z
GFS. 949
ICON 956
HWRF 942
EURO 948. 00z
Just slightly west of last couple of runs....
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I haven’t had a chance to pull up the NAM this morning... is it still showing the ridiculous sub 900mb pressures it was last night?06z
GFS. 949
ICON 956
HWRF 942
EURO 948. 00z
HMON 952
Just slightly west of last couple of runs....
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Yes...I just added it. I interpret it as "evacuate NOW"!!!!I haven’t had a chance to pull up the NAM this morning... is it still showing the ridiculous sub 900mb pressures it was last night?
The models are consistently showing a category 3 hurricane. I think we could see this get to 115 to 120 mph.
The 18z euro is 939 mb!! What a turn of events for the King lolView attachment 47158
Hmmmm....you did notice that it's only 6 point below the Euro and 7 from the GFS.? As well, it's been throwing these numbers for the last couple of days while the others have been vacillating all over the place. I wouldnt take it completely at face value but it tells us that in a specific set of conditions, this is what we can expect. Those conditions are coming upon us.....The HWRF always has the most apocalyptic scenario
And because the Euro finally got it right at the 11th hour, the verification score will still remain high. That’s why those scores are not very useful.I thought the King was involuntarily abdicating the throne.
Yeah. It’s always got a buzzsaw depicted I guess is what I’m trying to say.Hmmmm....you did notice that it's only 6 point below the Euro and 7 from the GFS.? As well, it's been throwing these numbers for the last couple of days while the others have been vacillating all over the place. I wouldnt take it completely at face value but it tells us that in a specific set of conditions, this is what we can expect. Those conditions are coming upon us.....
Oh I don't usually question them and I'm not now but its just concerning me that what if the EPS is onto something
They are probably right but seeing Marco shift so much in one advisory was kind of eye opening (obviously this isn't Marco but still)
Also on a selfish note I was in Galveston last month and hope to go back next year if it's not destroyed![]()
I agree. This storm could be a bad one for the Houston metro given the current trends.Im going 939mb Galveston bay Landfall. LF could be 20-30 miles to the north of the bay. Thats my forecast.
Houston metro floods very easily. Hopefully folks are paying attn
I’m trying to remember if Houston got a significant storm surge with Ike... I remember there was a lot of wind damage in downtown Houston with hundreds of windows blown out of skyscrapers, but it seems to me the whole news focus of the storm surge was on what happened to Galveston... which was devastating especially for a Category 2... I don’t want us to see what a cat 4 will do today coming in at the same angle.Im going 939mb Galveston bay Landfall. LF could be 20-30 miles to the north of the bay. Thats my forecast.
Houston metro floods very easily. Hopefully folks are paying attn
I’m trying to remember if Houston got a significant storm surge with Ike... I remember there was a lot of wind damage in downtown Houston with hundreds of windows blown out of skyscrapers, but it seems to me the whole news focus of the storm surge was on what happened to Galveston... which was devastating especially for a Category 2... I don’t want us to see what a cat 4 will do today coming in at the same angle.
Im going 939mb Galveston bay Landfall. LF could be 20-30 miles to the north of the bay. Thats my forecast.
Houston metro floods very easily. Hopefully folks are paying attn