No if euro is right with a center over Ashe county everyone from Charlotte to the coast would have isolated tornadoes and wind. South Carolina in play too.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Do you think Charleston is in play or too far south ?
It’s in play with the cold front too and Laura. Too far out to rule that area out even tho the euro has been rock steady on that NC/VA border track it could trend south.
NRVWX
Member
The NHC track has it riding the VA/WVA border roughly parallel and just north of I-81. The best shot for SC currently would be the upstate and N. Midlands. Just imo though.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
There hasn't been a lot of talk about GA but im assuming N GA would be impacted just as much as SC ?
Here’s a closer look. Along and to the right of the track for some tornado potential. I think flooding will mainly occur foothills/northwest piedmont and mountains. the little pre-event with Marco should tell us any tropical type rates will cause major flash flooding in the west. 
The cutoff would be north Georgia mountains into the central SC based on latest models as the activity shifts to coastal Virginia in a hurry. Several days away tho this could all change despite the euro being in a lock ? on its track.
I agree with this solution. Within a county or so we pretty much know where landfall is gonna be imo.
Henry2326
Member
Yeah, I'm not sure I'm sold on a direct hit for central LA. Personally I think it will either go into Galveston, or perhaps up by Lake Charles in far western Louisiana. Either of those would still give my area a decent tornado and heavy rain threat given Laura's large size. But I'm still prepared just in case she suddenly veers north too soon.
Henry2326
Member
WOW.....
D
Deleted member 527
Guest
The company I work for is based in Houston. Many people I know lost everything from Harvey. The virus shut us down now this possibility of a hurricane. Sigh. 2020 needs to be over months ago.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Find that pretty interesting. Thought no impacts to NC? ?
Dewpoint Dan
Member
The forecast track must have changed significantly for him to make such a big forecast change.
Oh boy...
mbway091
Member
Looks like he's just pointing out something interesting from a single run of one model. I wouldn't read much into it at this point.
That’s the thing, it really didn’t.. the models were showing yesterday the remnant low of Laura moving through Tennessee and around the NC/VA border area and he was saying no impact.
Good Lord...
Euro slight NE shift, LF just west of the Tx/La border and a freaking powerhouse
Euro has been absolute garbage with this storm. But this solution is probably quite close to reality.
I believe that would be a solid Cat 4 at landfall on the Euro
Completely agree..... somebody else mentioned the other day, Euro has struggled with genesis but once it latches on it seems to then take the lead
I like the location of the Euro for landfall(maybe 20-30 miles South and west) but not the intensity.
She better shed that dry air in addition to the shear rather quickly over the next 12 hours if she's going to get that strong. Also, given the distance traveled in the GOM you're probably looking at 1 ERC which will expand the wind field but keeps the storm less intense around the center but does give a bigger wind field overall.
She better shed that dry air in addition to the shear rather quickly over the next 12 hours if she's going to get that strong. Also, given the distance traveled in the GOM you're probably looking at 1 ERC which will expand the wind field but keeps the storm less intense around the center but does give a bigger wind field overall.
weatherboyy
Member
she move nw not wnw
I think an ERC is a legit possibility, but only if she starts strengthening rapidly fairly soon.
Right, worst case scenario is what the Euro is painting, delayed RI and right up until LF, not allowing time for any ERC to be a somewhat saving grace here.
Brent
Member
Wow the euro is now stronger than the HWRF which is not as strong as it was lol
Also, keep in mind SW shear is forecast to increase as she approaches the coast and I have my doubts models have a great analysis of that scenario. Assuming winds remain out of the SW near the coast, if strong enough they will tilt the storm and cause her to weaken a little. I don't think it would be huge but 10-15 MPH could be difference between CAT 2 vs CAT 3
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Been studying the satellite imagery....It almost looks like the storm is travelling along in 2 parts. like cogs in a clock? The Northern part has a counter clockwise (cyclonic spin) while the southern part seems to have a clockwise (anticyclonic) spin. It almost seems like the southern part is pushing the northern part to the north?
Latest 12z euro is a blue ridge shredder. Deepens offshore Virginia with backside winds in the mtns. Blasts northern NC and all of Virginia with severe weather Saturday evening. Maybe 10 miles north of previous run but same impacts if not worse. 
Shaggy
Member
Any chance we can keep the inland effects in the August thread as to not clutter up this thread with stuff that's 4 days away instead of a near term disaster along the gulf coast?
I see what you're saying, with all the MBY comments from some in the Carolinas re: the storm's remnants. But Laura should still be a tropical storm as she goes through Arkansas. Aren't there a few on this board from that state? I guess the main thing is to keep things relevant. Other than myself, there aren't that many on this forum that would directly be impacted by Laura's landfall.
Yep we have few and far posters near landfall might as well post it all here. The COC is still intact through Tennessee and redevelops sub 990mb near Virginia Beach could be a hurricane again on the east coast.
I agree I think anything for Tn/NC/SC should go in the August thread at least through landfall or have a Laura inland impacts thread that can be merged post landfall
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Anytime I see storms churning in the gulf like this, makes me ponder the thought why in the world would you live below sea level?
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Anyone on here chasing this storm ? I think Port Arthur might be a good place to go chase.