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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

KYweather said:
I mean both these posts are mine so sure I will stop. I think its obvious when you look at the upper atmosphere though where this thing is going.

People should also stop wish casting on here and say its going further east or its going to bomb out or whatever. Doesn't that clog up the form.

I digress. I will keep thoughts to myself. Have a good one.
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Your input to the board is very appreciated. I enjoy reading everyone’s options and thinking on these things. This one is a difficult forecast for sure


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KYweather said:
I mean both these posts are mine so sure I will stop. I think its obvious when you look at the upper atmosphere though where this thing is going.

People should also stop wish casting on here and say its going further east or its going to bomb out or whatever. Doesn't that clog up the form.

I digress. I will keep thoughts to myself. Have a good one.
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It's not just you. But nothing is going to be obvious until this thing gets into the Gulf, it's also going to be interacting with another storm. So the upper-level atmosphere may not play into this as it might with other storms.

And people aren't really wish-casting anything, so I don't know what you're referring to. Everyone has been pretty good about that thus far. You're allowed to post on here as we all are, but this setup is something that rarely ever happens, so just blurting out 2-word answers isn't informative nor helpful.
 
Wildish said:
Just finished final preparations. My back is killing me from digging sandbags this morning. Stores are a mess. Now we wait.

Not liking current trends.
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It’s great to have you here! I was thinking about your live streams since @SD is going to one for the site on Monday. Could you give us some tips?

For those who aren’t familiar with them, here’s theirs.
 
[mention]ryan1234 [/mention] Thank you for saying what most have been thinking. Would like if we kept this board more on scientific observations. Could we please relax the HWRF posts...please.


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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Keys.
TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020
2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.
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CADEffect said:
[mention]ryan1234 [/mention] Thank you for saying what most have been thinking. Would like if we kept this board more on scientific observations. Could we please relax the HWRF posts...please.


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I think all model posts are welcome. Occasional, the crazy ones are right and even in winter, people just choose to post the most insane, snowy runs, even if they come from the deep blue thunder model, if it gives their back yard
 
ryan1234 said:
It's not just you. But nothing is going to be obvious until this thing gets into the Gulf, it's also going to be interacting with another storm. So the upper-level atmosphere may not play into this as it might with other storms.

And people aren't really wish-casting anything, so I don't know what you're referring to. Everyone has been pretty good about that thus far. You're allowed to post on here as we all are, but this setup is something that rarely ever happens, so just blurting out 2-word answers isn't informative nor helpful.
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Fair. On me for the two word response. I will be better at that going forward.
 
Just to add another model and look for trends...18z NAM at 84 hours is at 988 MB in the south central Gulf.
 
NHC already saying their 85 mph forecast could be conservative

The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but given the
possibility of a favorable upper-air environment over the Gulf,
this forecast could be conservative.
 
CADEffect said:
[mention]ryan1234 [/mention] Thank you for saying what most have been thinking. Would like if we kept this board more on scientific observations. Could we please relax the HWRF posts...please.


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Feel free to post the models that you would like.....and I will post the ones that I like.
 
18z GFS has a 959 mb hurricane making landfall on Wednesday Night.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png
 
Wonder how Laura would do as it Interacts with some sort of flat trough as it heads East after its made landfall
 
18z Icon crosses over Cuba and hits at 976 on Thursday morning...just shy west of 18z GFS....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_08_22_18_17_02_138.jpg
 
SD said:
Call me crazy but if it can get enough hook and stay SE enough we might be able to track it right it into the Atlantic
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I do call you crazy but I have a crazier proposition. Marco is thrown further east and Laura is shoved to its south and then north afterwards into LA. Marco being a solid cat 3 and Laura being a cat 1. Now call me crazy because I'm pretty sure that's not likely.
 
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