Looking at IR, the western half of the eye appears to be closed off.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Winds up to 85 mph and pressure down to 983 mb.
Tornadocane
Member
Any guesses as to the lowest pressure that the HHs find on the next pass? I'm going with 978.
snowlover91
Member
Water only gets warmer ahead of Laura. Cat 4 is achievable and a shot at cat 5 as well. This one could intensify all the way until landfall similar to Harvey and Michael, barring an EWRC.
Its getting breezy outside. Low clouds blowing in from the east.
Recon data shows the pressure has dropped to 981 mb.
NoSnowATL
Member
Henry2326
Member
Pressure is down to 980.8 mb per the recon data.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Seems the pressure keeps getting lower with each run of the Euro. It's showing the strongest storm now and had been showing the weakest until today. I guess it's late to the party again, but now that it's arrived it is usually the one that leads the way at the end.
Henry2326
Member
avlsnow
Member
Pressure is down to 978 per the most recent recon data
Henry2326
Member
Interesting.....18z HWRF has it at 986 at midnight tonight.....and 00z Nam has it at 971 at 1:00 am tonight.....
Henry2326
Member
00z Nam....shifts east at 895....
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Trend of the day....away from a TX landfall
Brent
Member
120 mph before landfall
...LAURA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 89.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
...LAURA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 89.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
Wrapping up rapidly now. Strong banding with -70C tops with an increasingly symmetrical CDO.
NHC track looks like it's shifted slightly east. I wonder how much further east before my own parish (county) gets a TS warning issued.
weatherboyy
Member
not move and plus I think go be more east shifts
Henry2326
Member
00z Icon starts out at 993 for midnight......while it's already at 978...It ends up at 971.
So let's take the 15 off and it would be 956.
No change in placement.
So let's take the 15 off and it would be 956.
No change in placement.
Pressure still at 980.8 mb.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
If it keeps getting stronger it might be more than 120 mph. The actual pressure is lower now than what the models show.
77 kt unflagged SFMR found.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Cameron, LA is one unlucky town. Hurricanes Audrey, Rita, and Ike all did major damage. They had a population of 2,000 but it's down to less than 500 now. Hopefully this hurricane spares Cameron.
I remember both Ike and Rita. Since I live 150 miles from the TX state line, I wasn't impacted very directly from either one, beside brief power outages and some tree branches downed. I remember Rita was more intense than Ike for MBY.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
What is the worst hurricane you have experienced ?
Hurricane Gustav in 2008. That landed as a upper end Cat 2. We were on the eastern side, so we got all the wind and rain. I also got to experience going through the convective banding of the eyewall (but not the eye itself). I watched as several trees in my neighborhood came crashing down. At one point I could lean into the wind comfortably during gusts (I was just a teenager, lol). No power for 5 days, and no generator. I got to experience the true misery of Deep South summer without the blessing of A/C.
Shaggy
Member
gfs seems to halt strengthening in the last hours till landfall. At 18 hours its 957 and at 24 hours its only 955 so only a 2MB drop as it approaches.
Loganatorh
Member
I remember Rita and I live in NE TX. Lots of trees in the piney woods to fall down. Power outtages were pretty rough, kinda expecting similar impacts this time around too.
Laura will probably be on the verge of major hurricane status by tomorrow morning. Just from past experiences, it seems some hurricanes make the jump in two steps. One from Cat 1 to Cat 2-3 and then levels out and then another step from Cat 2-3 to Cat 4-5. Really doesn’t bode well for LA and Texas to have this possibly coming in during its possible second strengthening cycle and at the convective max as well.
The question will be does it have enough time and will the shear be enough to drive dry continental air into the core before landfall?
The question will be does it have enough time and will the shear be enough to drive dry continental air into the core before landfall?
snowlover91
Member
Also throw in EWRC, not likely but if it tries to start one before landfall that will disrupt Laura and make it more vulnerable to any shear and dry air.
Definitely. If landfall was forecasted for Mid-day Thursday I would think it much more likely. I think time is against that here unless it gets into one of those perpetual ERC cycles where the eye never fully closes off or it goes nuts tonight which could happen.
BufordWX
Member
Laura’s taking off. The sustained winds are up to 105 mph now.
BufordWX
Member
00z Euro ain’t backing off. It has the pressure down to 935 mb at landfall.
Brent
Member
That euro might verify at this rate. I could definitely see a Cat 4 tomorrow at some point