Oh, I think we know where the rain snow line will set up.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah Laura looks like a decent TS right now...apparently recon is back and so far the lowest pressure is 1003 looks like.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Henry2326
Member
Slightly east of GFS position.....consistently in the 930s....
At this point, we are cat 2 or higher.....I know I wouldnt sit through a cat3.....
It will be a little breezy.
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Haha
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Well....to your point ?Oh, I think we know where the rain snow line will set up.
BHS1975
Member
That stuff to the south is gonna get shredded as it gets dragged over the island.
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lexxnchloe
Member
I think if marco doesnt become a cane and weakens to almost nothing then laura could go quite a bit west
JB made a good point as far as the analogs of Isador and Lili. I went in with ERA-5 and found that Lili could be a good analog to Laura due to the environment and track. However, Isador, unlike Marco encountered a very nice upper-level environment.
Ah yes Lili, the most awesome example of a hurricane being decapitated in (my)history.
Edit: bug meeting windshield may be an even better analog. One of those fat ones that splatter.
Jessy89
Member
Meaning the track is still changing and not set in stone. Hard forecast
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I WOULD NOT TAKE ANYTHING TO HEART FROM NHC UNTIL THIS THING CLEARS THE ISLANDS. THAT TRACK IS GOING TO KEEP BOUNCING WEST TO EAST UNTIL THEN I BELIEVE
HWRF has been its typical very erratic self. Until very recently, even after other models went south, it kept insisting on the LLC being north of PR.
But I'd take the NHC to heart before I'd take the HWRF to heart.
Jessy89
Member
I certainly wouldn’t want the job of trying to forecast this one
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Agree, while I do think it strengthens in the gulf to a cane, hrwf is just been wonky so far