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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Everyones favorite weenie model HWRF

Should be noted on a non intensity note last night it was hitting Alabama so it has come west a lot

hwrf_satIR_13L_15 (2).png

HMON shifted east into Louisiana

23-B1-D50-E-789-E-446-D-AE73-E14-B4-FA01-B98.png
 
Euro already at 990 mb and it's still over Cuba Marco landfalling in SE LA gonna be a much stronger run

It's still catching up...
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.gom.png

Bombs away and Texas bound lol

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.gom (3).pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf.gom.pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf.gom (3).png

Wow what a run!

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.gom (4).png
 
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GaWx said:
Thanks, Brent. So, 2004 had 2 direct TS+ hits only one day apart for the same state. That would beat 2020's projected 2 days apart. However, the two storms in 2004 didn't affect the same areas and, as you said, Bonnie was weak. So, if the NHC tracks verify, 2020 would beat 2004 for the same area being affected and potentially with the weaker of the two being stronger in 2020.
Click to expand...

@Brent Curiosity got hold of me and I had some time. So, I looked even further back to add to what Brent was able to find about 2004 and found two other years that are worth a mention:

1. 1923

1598164606826.png

In mid October just 43 hours apart apart, there was a cat 1 H (80 mph) landfall from storm #6 ( a storm that formed in the E Pacific, a rarity in itself) in C LA followed by a TS landfall from storm #8 in MS only ~120 miles east. E LA was significantly affected by both.

On the map below, you can see the first storm hitting LA while the 2nd storm was forming over the Bay of Campeche:

1598163836556.png

I found this map here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1923_Atlantic_hurricane_season
From there:
"A storm which formed in the eastern Pacific basin around October 12 struck Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane on October 16. The system caused some damage to coastal areas, especially between New Orleans, Louisiana, and Pensacola, Florida. Just two days later, a tropical storm also struck Louisiana; it caused less damage, though four people died after a ship capsized in Perdido Bay."


2. 1985
1598164818358.png


In late September just under 3 days apart, there was a 40 mph TS, Henri, that crossed far E Long Island, NY, followed by cat 1 H (85 mph) Gloria over western Long Island ~75 miles to Henri's west. Far E L.I. and into E New England had effects from both.
 

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GaWx said:
@Brent Curiosity got hold of me and I had some time. So, I looked even further back to add to what Brent was able to find about 2004 and found two other years that are worth a mention:

1. 1923

View attachment 47016

In mid October just 43 hours apart apart, there was a cat 1 H (80 mph) landfall from storm #6 ( a storm that formed in the E Pacific, a rarity in itself) in C LA followed by a TS landfall from storm #8 in MS only ~120 miles east. E LA was significantly affected by both.

On the map below, you can see the first storm hitting LA while the 2nd storm was forming over the Bay of Campeche:

View attachment 47015

I found this map here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1923_Atlantic_hurricane_season



2. 1985
View attachment 47018


In late September just under 3 days apart, there was a 40 mph TS, Henri, that crossed far E Long Island, NY, followed by cat 1 H (85 mph) Gloria over E L.. ~75 miles to Henri's west. Far E L.I. and into E New England had effects from both.
Click to expand...

Yeah I had meant to look at some other examples but got distracted thanks :p

What a way to end the 0z runs though let's remember the Euro had an open wave in the Gulf 2 days ago...
 
The latest 00z Euro would be a proper solution based on the past 15 years of the mysterious and tenacious block Phenomenon of hurricanes and tropical storms lol:


ecmwf.png


TS Block.jpg
 
The 0Z EPS shifts with the operational and wallops TX and W LA followed by many of them then looping around through or near TN and coming back offshore from NC or nearby. One of these members coming SE off NC then loops back around again and comes back onshore near Jacksonville, FL, as a H followed by a move into the Gulf a 2nd time followed by a 3rd US landfall as a H into Pensacola on Sept. 5th! After this, it goes NW to Memphis late on Sep 6th as still a formidable storm 14 days from today! And that would be a 2nd hit on Memphis from this member!
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS shifts with the operational and wallops TX and W LA followed by many of them then looping around through or near TN and coming back offshore from NC or nearby. One of these members coming SE off NC then loops back around again and comes back onshore near Jacksonville, FL, as a H followed by a move into the Gulf a 2nd time followed by a 3rd US landfall as a H into Pensacola on Sept. 5th! After this, it goes NW to Memphis late on Sep 6th as still a formidable storm 14 days from today! And that would be a 2nd hit on Memphis from this member!
Click to expand...
Yeah... that sounds like something that would happen in 2020...
 
EURO looks bad for NC...993mb over Tennessee. Flooding and tornado potential. Plus due East over the entire state could bring additional flooding.
 
Looks like the models continue to be all over the place with the track.
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS shifts with the operational and wallops TX and W LA followed by many of them then looping around through or near TN and coming back offshore from NC or nearby. One of these members coming SE off NC then loops back around again and comes back onshore near Jacksonville, FL, as a H followed by a move into the Gulf a 2nd time followed by a 3rd US landfall as a H into Pensacola on Sept. 5th! After this, it goes NW to Memphis late on Sep 6th as still a formidable storm 14 days from today! And that would be a 2nd hit on Memphis from this member!
Click to expand...
I need to see this member that hits Memphis twice. Lol
 
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