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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

I just looked at it’s IR presentation and wow, this thing may actually become a monster...
 
The angle Laura could take into NO,SE LA area will not bode well if its cat 3+. Espeacilly on the heels of Marco rains. Something to consider.
 
0z euro would be bad for midsouth east Arkansas and west Tennessee... still sub 1000 mb pressure sitting over ne Arkansas moving towards nw Tennessee would not only result in heavy tropical rains but severe weather with tornadoes in the stronger bands especially on the east side of center circulation... not to mention strong winds also.
 
Chazwin said:
The way the models are wanting to hook this back to the East so quickly, it makes you wonder if that track could set up severe weather as it moves East across Tennessee and into the Carolinas and Virginia.
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Look like quite a bit of the EPS members and a few GEFS members take it right through Tennessee and into the Carolinas.
 
So far this storm isn’t going as planned from yesterday. It’s odd how well the storm outflow is this close to land. Haiti and DR are getting hammered right now.

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Looks like Hispaniola definitely inhibited the hurricane hunters this morning. Looks like they were only able to do 1 pass on the south side of Hispaniola before leaving.
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06z GFS and 06z HWRF have the same land interaction and both come off the Island at the same pressure of 1003. Both show coming off island on north corner.
Landfall for both is almost at the Tx/LA border.
GFS 953
HWRF 947

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Brent said:
Florida 2004 Bonnie and Charley a day apart Bonnie was very weak though

That was the same year Florida had 4 hurricanes in 6 weeks Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne Frances and Jeanne hit the same spot 3 weeks apart
View attachment 47004
View attachment 47003
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Right where I grew up. Lost part of the roof to my childhood home, then lost the tarp covering the roof.. lol

I will never forget the horror on my mom's face when we saw that Jeanne was going to loop around.

Honestly, it didn't add too much more Damage, from my perspective. What was done was already done by Fances.
 
06z Icon comes off the island at 1002, but only makes it to 966....its a little bit faster getting there, so less time over water......landfall same as GFS. Same as GFS and HWRF coming off Island on north corner.

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Henry2326 said:
Did it say again that it was a conservative estimate or did they drop that language?
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Here is what they said about intensity
advisory.

Little if any significant change in strength is expected due to
Laura moving pretty much down the spine of Hispaniola and Cuba
during the the next 36 hours, with the strongest wind likely
remaining over water in the northeast quadrant where the pressure
gradient will be the tightest between the cyclone and the Bermuda
High. By 48 hours and continuing until landfall, Laura is forecast
to remain in a low shear and very favorable upper-level outflow
environment while passing of extremely warm SSTs near 31C. This
should allow for significant strengthening to occur once the cyclone
regains a decent inner core after exiting Cuba. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a blend of the intensity forecasts by the GFS
and ECMWF global models and the corrected consensus models HCCA and
FSSE.
Click to expand...
 
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