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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Henry2326 said:
From Firsthand Weather facebook.....

"It's already beginning. Take note that these photos were taken in Golden Meadow and Leeville, Louisiana, well to the east of where Laura will actually make landfall. Also, this is already happening, even though Laura won't make landfall until late tonight. Sadly, what's shown in these photos pales in comparison to what's about to happen in southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Photos shared by the Lafourche Parish Sheriff’s Office -Matthew"
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That is insane and Laura is still 12 hours out. Prayers and thoughts for all those going to be affected by Laura. This goes well inland even into where I am at in TN.
 
mghjuno said:
I have a friend from New Orleans whose family intended to ride out Katrina, but changed their minds when a police officer insisted that my friend's mom write her social security # on her arm in sharpie while he watched when she was stopped at a road block headed back into the city the day before it hit, after doing an errand in Baton Rouge.
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Good tactic by officer to bring home true impact
 
If that surge map is accurate, or even close, Lake Charles is gonna be in a world of hurt. I'm not familiar with the topography there and how that city is situated in relation to sea level, but a 15-20 ft surge coming up that river is going to put a lot of ground under water in a hurry.
 
g0ldl10n said:
Is there a reason the 12z models are initializing with pressure at 971mb?

View attachment 47375

Hour 6 still has higher pressure than what it is now

View attachment 47376
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Resolution of the model. If you put the actual pressure at the single point the entire grid point however many km it is on the model would register at that pressure. That would create chaos within the model as you try to fill in the adjacent grid points with rapidly increasing pressures and the end solution would be a wonky mess. The model has to spread and raise the pressure to handle the physics correctly.

Its also why on many globals in the summer you see big areas of green across the south during the afternoon convection period but may only have a few scattered storms.
 
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Just by looking at IR, I believe it has steadied out somewhat. The problem is as we head toward evening and the convective max will we see another bout of significant strengthening as the eye contracts or will shear be enough to prevent it?
 
Arcc said:
Just by looking at IR, I believe it has steadied out somewhat. The problem is as we head toward evening and the convective max will we see another bout of significant strengthening as the eye contracts or will shear be enough to prevent it?
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Looks like it’s still strengthening to me. Structure continuing to improve and the eye is contracting some it appears. Pressure is likely in the 940s.
 
Arcc said:
Just by looking at IR, I believe it has steadied out somewhat. The problem is as we head toward evening and the convective max will we see another bout of significant strengthening as the eye contracts or will shear be enough to prevent it?
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I saw some earlier thinking along those lines, but they all have backed off in the past hour with more of a continuing strengthening language.
 
Pressure down to 950 mb.
556
URNT15 KNHC 261730
AF307 2313A LAURA HDOB 18 20200826
172130 2725N 09217W 6963 02788 9563 +153 +144 093086 097 121 002 01
172200 2723N 09218W 6958 02773 9532 +166 +133 101060 078 105 000 00
172230 2722N 09219W 6960 02754 9521 +163 +134 102044 052 073 004 03
172300 2720N 09219W 6971 02737 9506 +175 +113 104028 037 047 001 00
172330 2718N 09220W 6966 02740 9500 +180 +096 109024 027 035 001 00
172400 2716N 09220W 6970 02731 9500 +177 +100 109017 022 026 001 00
172430 2715N 09221W 6966 02740 9510 +170 +099 099008 012 020 001 03
172500 2713N 09221W 6970 02738 9519 +167 +092 065002 006 022 001 03
172530 2711N 09221W 6964 02746 9522 +162 +094 293004 006 023 001 00
172600 2709N 09221W 6963 02748 9520 +165 +109 280012 017 023 001 03
172630 2707N 09222W 6966 02751 9520 +168 +116 292025 030 028 001 03
172700 2706N 09223W 6958 02768 9542 +151 +127 299037 039 035 002 00
172730 2705N 09224W 6964 02775 9562 +147 +133 295046 048 048 003 00
172800 2704N 09225W 6979 02771 9584 +147 +143 297064 077 056 007 00
172830 2703N 09227W 6963 02818 9602 +152 +140 299085 086 065 006 00
172900 2702N 09228W 6961 02842 9615 +167 +116 296090 092 072 003 00
172930 2701N 09229W 6975 02852 9635 +177 +086 293093 094 075 004 00
173000 2700N 09230W 6954 02893 9667 +161 +099 296092 095 075 004 00
173030 2659N 09231W 6979 02883 9703 +145 +119 294091 092 073 004 00
173100 2658N 09232W 6958 02930 9732 +134 +118 293091 093 072 004 00
$$
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Going back to that 30 miles inland for the surge bit... It seems crazy but if you look back at the big ones in that area(Ike Rita and Audrey) the water went close to that each time and this one is gonna be at least on par if not bigger that area always floods bad

Audrey 1957 killed 400 people most of them in Cameron because of poor warnings
 
Arcc said:
Just by looking at IR, I believe it has steadied out somewhat. The problem is as we head toward evening and the convective max will we see another bout of significant strengthening as the eye contracts or will shear be enough to prevent it?
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Sorry for the possibly simple question, but what do you mean by 'convective max' toward the evening?
 
SD said:
Might be wrong here but I am not seeing that much of a sign of shear. Cirrus canopy is still expanding to the west and SW of the system instead of stacking up like you would typically see as a system is approaching shear or shear is approaching
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Yeah, and even when the shear arrives, it’s not much at all, only around 5-10kts at most, that won’t do much if any
 
g0ldl10n said:
Sorry for the possibly simple question, but what do you mean by 'convective max' toward the evening?
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Convection over water increases as you get into the nighttime hours. If I remember right, but don’t quote me, the convective minimum is somewhere around 3pm and it starts to increase from there. This is probably why cloud tops have warmed over Laura recently.

Probably why the most powerful of the Atlantic hurricanes reached peak in the very early hours of the morning.
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
100 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LAURA HAS BECOME AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...LITTLE TIME REMAINS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
 
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