B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It's 2020, so just expect the worst case scenario.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
BHS1975
Member
Looks like we may get another Dorian with the eye wall merger.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
A weakening eyewall means weakening period. Now an ERC can lead to strengthening after the cycle is complete, but that isn’t what is happening here.
Probably twelve to eighteen hours left in this strengthening cycle unless shear interferes.
It's really interesting how some storms go days without an ERC and some barely form the first eye without immediately initiating an ERC.
ajr
Member
Anyone know why he says it's 45,000 ft up? With a 0.53 degree tilt and distance of ~250 miles (tan(0.53')*250) should get something like 12,000 ft...?
Dang, 952.9mb, from recon, interesting to see if the dropsonde verifys.
ajr
Member
Looks like down to ~955mb (from ~960mb about an hour ago)
140330 2642N 09149W 6967 02778 9557 +162 +099 054006 013 022 001 03
140400 2640N 09147W 6965 02776 9546 +172 +097 125001 004 /// /// 03
140430 2639N 09146W 6965 02773 9546 +168 +118 245013 017 /// /// 03
140500 2637N 09145W 6965 02783 9554 +168 +126 239024 028 /// /// 03
140530 2638N 09143W 6968 02780 9550 +169 +122 212028 029 /// /// 03
140600 2640N 09141W 6974 02767 9529 +190 +101 175028 029 /// /// 03
140630 2641N 09140W 6969 02776 9529 +194 +090 171033 035 /// /// 03
140700 2642N 09138W 6967 02782 9542 +186 +094 162038 039 035 003 03
140330 2642N 09149W 6967 02778 9557 +162 +099 054006 013 022 001 03
140400 2640N 09147W 6965 02776 9546 +172 +097 125001 004 /// /// 03
140430 2639N 09146W 6965 02773 9546 +168 +118 245013 017 /// /// 03
140500 2637N 09145W 6965 02783 9554 +168 +126 239024 028 /// /// 03
140530 2638N 09143W 6968 02780 9550 +169 +122 212028 029 /// /// 03
140600 2640N 09141W 6974 02767 9529 +190 +101 175028 029 /// /// 03
140630 2641N 09140W 6969 02776 9529 +194 +090 171033 035 /// /// 03
140700 2642N 09138W 6967 02782 9542 +186 +094 162038 039 035 003 03
snowlover91
Member
Previous pass was 957.5 and this one is 952.9, almost a 5mb drop in the extrap in one pass. This will be in the 940s by noon if this continues.
mydoortotheworld
Member
To my untrained eye.. a few hours ago on IR (8am), you could really tell the left side of the storm was restricted and looked a bit squished (and despite this, it still rapidly strengthened), but looking at it now, it looks really good...
We are near that unknown territory where we don’t know if we see zero one two or three EWRC before landfall. Time is running out tho and the surge has already been created so an imminent disaster is coming.
Jessy89
Member
That surge will be as dangerous as a tsunami
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
snowlover91
Member
According to the NOAA plane, the pressure is at 957.8 mb.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I think that temporary occlusion in the eye may have been indicating a slight change in direction
Is it just me, or is the air force recon plane data not updating?
ajr
Member
Not just you... stopped updating on NHC as well https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml
BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020
...LAURA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 92.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020
...LAURA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 92.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
Laura is now expected to peak as 145 mph hurricane.
Brent
Member
1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline. Only a few hours remain to protect life and property and
all actions should be rushed to completion.
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline. Only a few hours remain to protect life and property and
all actions should be rushed to completion.
NoSnowATL
Member
145-150 at landfall per NHC. Damn
Meanwhile, it's currently eerily calm outside, only very light breezes so far. I'm actually thankful this monster isn't making a beeline for Baton Rouge right now. Pressure on my gauge is actually steady, at 1010 mb.
Henry2326
Member
In the last model run, the only ones left are:
EURO 940
HWRF 937.
HMON 932
NAM 12z 908. Was 895
I'm still with a cat5, 900-915 pressure.....
Wow....30 miles of surge inundation....
Last edited:
ajr
Member
Only good news we have is that Houston will be ok. This could have been much worse for our country.
Guys, please put the funny images and gifs in the Banter thread, while we have a major hurricane bearing down on the LA coast. Thanks for the help!
lexxnchloe
Member
Good thing its moving fast, might ameliorate inland flooding
My god.. 30 miles inland seems insane.. is this normal or partly due to the speed at which Laura is traveling?
Jessy89
Member
Yes, it's unlikely that Houston will get the worst case scenario we mentioned a day or so ago, of the eye entering Galveston Bay as a Cat 4/5. But I don't think Houston residents should go about as though nothing's happening. They'll still be getting some of that rain and wind on the west side at the current trajectory. And an East Texas landfall is still not out of the question.
It was in the NHC discussion. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/261452.shtml
Take a look at at topo map of the area. It's one big swamp where 4' above sea level is high ground.
Luckily it’s a swamp area vs Houston.
Yes, south Louisiana is actually more similar to Florida's topography. Our only somewhat decent hills are on either side of the Red River (in the upper part of Louisiana), and north of Baton Rouge, just below Mississippi state line. So when we get too much rain, everyone floods.
Thor
Member
The thing i like about tracking Hurricanes is the amount we still Don't know. I'm sure Webb has a logical explanation for most but the fact we still can't identify a Hurricane that will go through multiple ERC's. We still don't understand how they have the tendency to jump off of land and back over water at times, and how when close to landfall the compression of the bands can cause intensification, or deterioration depending on the storm. Winter storms kind of come down to cold enough and moisture. But storms like this have so many more forces at play. I think we do a better job now of understanding a models "wheelhouse", like the HWRF and a more powerful hurricane, but the variability and unpredictability are still there even in 2020.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Are there any live reporters along the immediate LA coast ? The closest I've seen is from Lake Charles. Maybe its too dangerous to be reporting from the immediate coast?
Yeah Lake Charles will be bad enough, there's nothing to really slow this down or weakening from the immediate coast to Lake Charles. Again it will basically be traveling over swamp land till then
NoSnowATL
Member
I’m pretty sure TWC will be moving farther inland after the updated forecast. The storm chasers better do the same with this monster unless they want to be stranded for a week or more.
Pressure down to 957.2 mb.