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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

blueheronNC said:
Did it have shear? That clear eye stadium effect at landfall was the best ever photographed from the ground of any hurricane on record.
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Yes and no. Michael was experiencing SW shear however as it made the turn NE it nullified most of it which is why it began strengthening rapidly at landfall.
 
06z
GFS. 949
ICON 956
HWRF 942
EURO 948. 00z
HMON 952
NAM 885
Just slightly west of last couple of runs....


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Welp....

89dc28fe81fb6ac039a235d60acbfe08.jpg


It's very close to wrapping the convection around it's core. This thing is going to take off today.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The HWRF always has the most apocalyptic scenario
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Hmmmm....you did notice that it's only 6 point below the Euro and 7 from the GFS.? As well, it's been throwing these numbers for the last couple of days while the others have been vacillating all over the place. I wouldnt take it completely at face value but it tells us that in a specific set of conditions, this is what we can expect. Those conditions are coming upon us.....
 
I see the NAM is now down to 885mb at landfall which I’m pretty sure would be a record for the entire Atlantic Basin... it seems it wants to do the same thing with hurricane pressures that it does with QPF right before a SE winter storm... go way overboard
 
Henry2326 said:
Hmmmm....you did notice that it's only 6 point below the Euro and 7 from the GFS.? As well, it's been throwing these numbers for the last couple of days while the others have been vacillating all over the place. I wouldnt take it completely at face value but it tells us that in a specific set of conditions, this is what we can expect. Those conditions are coming upon us.....
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Yeah. It’s always got a buzzsaw depicted I guess is what I’m trying to say.
 
Brent said:
Oh I don't usually question them and I'm not now but its just concerning me that what if the EPS is onto something

They are probably right but seeing Marco shift so much in one advisory was kind of eye opening (obviously this isn't Marco but still)

Also on a selfish note I was in Galveston last month and hope to go back next year if it's not destroyed :p
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I love Padre Island too. So beautiful and serene (when there aren’t tourists). I have friends in Houston (she’s in Houston with the kids and he works on an oil rig in the Gulf) plus I have friends I was enlisted with that are stationed in Houston, Corpus Christi, Port Arthur, Galveston, Texas City, Brownsville, South Padre Island, and Victoria.

Edit: I’m a lapsed Catholic, but y’all please keep my friends in your thoughts (and prayers if you’re religious). I have a lot of former USCG shipmates that are still in down that way, plus a close friend whose family lives in Houston while he’s on an oil rig.
 
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Around the border of Louisiana/Texas i believe. But it’s already going further east then I thought it would.


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NCSNOW said:
Im going 939mb Galveston bay Landfall. LF could be 20-30 miles to the north of the bay. Thats my forecast.

Houston metro floods very easily. Hopefully folks are paying attn
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I’m trying to remember if Houston got a significant storm surge with Ike... I remember there was a lot of wind damage in downtown Houston with hundreds of windows blown out of skyscrapers, but it seems to me the whole news focus of the storm surge was on what happened to Galveston... which was devastating especially for a Category 2... I don’t want us to see what a cat 4 will do today coming in at the same angle.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m trying to remember if Houston got a significant storm surge with Ike... I remember there was a lot of wind damage in downtown Houston with hundreds of windows blown out of skyscrapers, but it seems to me the whole news focus of the storm surge was on what happened to Galveston... which was devastating especially for a Category 2... I don’t want us to see what a cat 4 will do today coming in at the same angle.
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Do you remember all the rain from Harvey and how the entire Houston Metropolitan Area was inundated and flooded?
 
NCSNOW said:
Im going 939mb Galveston bay Landfall. LF could be 20-30 miles to the north of the bay. Thats my forecast.

Houston metro floods very easily. Hopefully folks are paying attn
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And even more so with higher sea levels.


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tramadoc said:
Do you remember all the rain from Harvey and how the entire Houston Metropolitan Area was inundated and flooded?
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Oh yeah... I remember it seemed like Harvey sat in the same location for days... at least Laura seems like she’ll be on the move and won’t have the time to drop the ridiculous rain totals that storms like Harvey and Florence did.
 
Something else to consider. As bad as Harvey was, he made landfall south of Houston, closer to Corpus Christi as a Cat 4. But then he meandered up the coast and mostly brought serious flooding to Houston. But since Laura is moving along, if she were to make a landfall in Galveston Bay, the storm surge and the winds on the east side would be magnified. It would be a catastrophe of a different kind. Hopefully this worst case doesn't come to fruition. And hopefully residents in the Houston area are paying attention.
 
Correct me if I’m wrong here, but doesn’t this reading indicate unflagged 77kt winds?
124800 2358N 08533W 6967 03112 0026 +081 +015 138072 077 056 008 00
 
Ethan80963 said:
6z EPS
View attachment 47209
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Weathernc showed the maps lastnight that could turn this more towards the north.

What gets my attention in looking at those ensembles is most dont have it as a hurricane till later. This gives me pause because a stronger storm just might turn earlier. While euro says watch out Texas and I was on the Houston to border landfall train I'd still be cautious into SW and central Louisiana.
 
Parker said:
Remember this? I’m so thankful that I don’t invest the time into tropical systems that I do with winter systems, because the run to run variability is insane. This thing is now trending to Texas and it looked like this not so long ago. Weather is crazy!View attachment 47196
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I understand that this has been a hard system to predict. A lot of landmasses was involved. However, comparing Tropical systems to winter storms is like apples to oranges. Sure there are similar factors like the tilt of the system and ULW. Both are different animals. Both are, I’m sorry to say exciting to track. I personally like a challenge, I know many here do as well. To the image that you shared (listed below) UKX2 ensemble has been on the money since this was published. August 21. I think I will make note of it for this guidance for future tropical systems. Where did you find this ATCF Guidance at? And honestly this ensemble is heading straight for Houston.


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