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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

tramadoc said:
Do you remember all the rain from Harvey and how the entire Houston Metropolitan Area was inundated and flooded?
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Oh yeah... I remember it seemed like Harvey sat in the same location for days... at least Laura seems like she’ll be on the move and won’t have the time to drop the ridiculous rain totals that storms like Harvey and Florence did.
 
Something else to consider. As bad as Harvey was, he made landfall south of Houston, closer to Corpus Christi as a Cat 4. But then he meandered up the coast and mostly brought serious flooding to Houston. But since Laura is moving along, if she were to make a landfall in Galveston Bay, the storm surge and the winds on the east side would be magnified. It would be a catastrophe of a different kind. Hopefully this worst case doesn't come to fruition. And hopefully residents in the Houston area are paying attention.
 
Correct me if I’m wrong here, but doesn’t this reading indicate unflagged 77kt winds?
124800 2358N 08533W 6967 03112 0026 +081 +015 138072 077 056 008 00
 
Ethan80963 said:
6z EPS
View attachment 47209
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Weathernc showed the maps lastnight that could turn this more towards the north.

What gets my attention in looking at those ensembles is most dont have it as a hurricane till later. This gives me pause because a stronger storm just might turn earlier. While euro says watch out Texas and I was on the Houston to border landfall train I'd still be cautious into SW and central Louisiana.
 
Parker said:
Remember this? I’m so thankful that I don’t invest the time into tropical systems that I do with winter systems, because the run to run variability is insane. This thing is now trending to Texas and it looked like this not so long ago. Weather is crazy!View attachment 47196
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I understand that this has been a hard system to predict. A lot of landmasses was involved. However, comparing Tropical systems to winter storms is like apples to oranges. Sure there are similar factors like the tilt of the system and ULW. Both are different animals. Both are, I’m sorry to say exciting to track. I personally like a challenge, I know many here do as well. To the image that you shared (listed below) UKX2 ensemble has been on the money since this was published. August 21. I think I will make note of it for this guidance for future tropical systems. Where did you find this ATCF Guidance at? And honestly this ensemble is heading straight for Houston.


9966805070dc094a10c67b6469b793ab.jpg



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