The 3K NAM never fails to disappoint......
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
BHS1975
Member
Oh yeah... I remember it seemed like Harvey sat in the same location for days... at least Laura seems like she’ll be on the move and won’t have the time to drop the ridiculous rain totals that storms like Harvey and Florence did.
Philstorm91
Member
Something else to consider. As bad as Harvey was, he made landfall south of Houston, closer to Corpus Christi as a Cat 4. But then he meandered up the coast and mostly brought serious flooding to Houston. But since Laura is moving along, if she were to make a landfall in Galveston Bay, the storm surge and the winds on the east side would be magnified. It would be a catastrophe of a different kind. Hopefully this worst case doesn't come to fruition. And hopefully residents in the Houston area are paying attention.
Correct me if I’m wrong here, but doesn’t this reading indicate unflagged 77kt winds?
124800 2358N 08533W 6967 03112 0026 +081 +015 138072 077 056 008 00
124800 2358N 08533W 6967 03112 0026 +081 +015 138072 077 056 008 00
6z EPS
Jessy89
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
Another thing to consider is the landfall time. Looks to hit around midnight which is even worse.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That value is for Flight level winds.
Shaggy
Member
Weathernc showed the maps lastnight that could turn this more towards the north.
What gets my attention in looking at those ensembles is most dont have it as a hurricane till later. This gives me pause because a stronger storm just might turn earlier. While euro says watch out Texas and I was on the Houston to border landfall train I'd still be cautious into SW and central Louisiana.
smast16
Member
Something to consider, is how long and straight she's going. That's a long time to build a swell for surge.
I understand that this has been a hard system to predict. A lot of landmasses was involved. However, comparing Tropical systems to winter storms is like apples to oranges. Sure there are similar factors like the tilt of the system and ULW. Both are different animals. Both are, I’m sorry to say exciting to track. I personally like a challenge, I know many here do as well. To the image that you shared (listed below) UKX2 ensemble has been on the money since this was published. August 21. I think I will make note of it for this guidance for future tropical systems. Where did you find this ATCF Guidance at? And honestly this ensemble is heading straight for Houston.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
She's about to be off to the races. Surge will be a big deal. I'm thinking Cat 4 at LF, barring an ERC. Looks like smooth sailing from here to Texas.
Henry2326
Member
Absolutely.....for the last couple of days, HWRF forecast the same pressure coming off the islands as GFS and Icon, but continued to rapidly intensify until landfall....
Henry2326
Member