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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

mbway091 said:
I fail to see how it's the mets fault that people don't think things through before making the life-threatening decision to stay put during a major hurricane. The forecasters do the best they can with the data they have. As always, I'm sure that this will be a learning experience that will allow them to further refine future predictions. That's just how science works. If people want to disregard the experts completely because of something like this then that's on them. You can't fix stupid.
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No doubt that you can't fix stupid. My original comment on this didn't fault mets for anything - I can guarantee they saved lives. Most of the forecast for Laura was outstanding... particularly the path. Based on history, storm strength, angle of impact, etc... they forecast a massive surge that simply didn't happen. It may have happened somewhere. But, for the Lake Charles area and many miles surrounding (40-50 miles inland), there was forecast of a catastrophic storm surge that did not happen. That doesn't mean the mets are stupid, or alarmist, or fear mongers, or over hypers. In fact, I'd argue the opposite on each of these. The storm apparently actually did come ashore as powerful as advertised, so, I'm asking, from a scientific standpoint, what happened to the surge? It's interesting.
 
Brent said:
Worst surge is where there's hardly any people... If it had been left of Cameron Lake Charles as it looked much different story note Rita's trackView attachment 47528
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Quite possibly the Louisiana map may change for those marshy areas to the east and southeast of Cameron. Still, given the storm's strength, this was a better outcome than if Laura had come ashore where Rita had.
 
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