I heard at the last minute those forecasts were cut way back, like 8-15’ at worst
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Thanks. It seems like the aircraft measured sustained don't usually get measured over land. Maybe they weaken quickly or blow out instruments...or both. As far as surge goes, no idea. 40 miles inland sounded like a lot to me, but I'm not a surge expert.
I kind of agree that so far, it looks like the observations didn't quite match up to the forecast language. But the end result is still pretty widespread destruction from a legit Cat 4 hurricane. Glad it wasn't worse!
Jessy89
Member
Seems to me actually the wind was the biggest story. Rather then the surge I mean I could be wrong.
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Philstorm91
Member
Good morning, looks like it was bad for Lake Charles, but thankfully no monster surge that I can see. Meanwhile, here in Baton Rouge, I'm about to get under an intense feeder band. Power is starting to blink.
Downeastnc
Member
It will be interesting to see how it shakes out, track was east enough to spare Lake Charles etc the full brunt of what was possible surge wise and the fast forward speed helped to I am sure. The winds were big time sustained in the mid 90's gusting to 130-140 is impressive anywhere anytime but its high end Cat 3 type winds IMO. Still its gonna be a sad sight when the sun gets up I am sure...
snowlover91
Member
I’ve noticed over the years that inland sustained winds never come close to the actual storm strength but the gusts usually are pretty close to the actual storm strength. It seems to be hard for the actual sustained winds to mix down to the surface effectively and/or be properly sampled by a weather station that doesn’t get knocked out. Friction I imagine has a part in reducing the actual winds since you have trees, buildings, etc whereas in the open ocean there is nothing like that to hinder the wind. Usually those high sustained winds would occur right on the coast in a very open area where the winds are not hindered like they are inland.
First, I am thrilled that, at least preliminarily, Laura's damage looks to be minimal, all things considered. I'm sure the immediate coast will be worse than what we're seeing out of Lake Charles and any loss of life/property is bad. I'm very thankful the surge wasn't the 15-20 ft forecast and is more like 5' (Lake Charles). Very good news for that city!! My concerns are, how can they miss surge forecast that bad? And, this type of thing sure feeds the "cry wolf" syndrome. "Unsurvivable storm surge" that didn't happen at all. I don't think it was overhyped; I just think it's a busted forecast. A real demonstration that we really don't know as much about storm surge as we think we do. Sometimes, they nail the surge forecast... on this one? It **looks** like a terrible miss, albeit for the good.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Ummmm...
Shaggy
Member
Perhaps the impact at less than high tide, a northeast wind blowing at a slightly offshore angle at first pushing water out and the barely and slightly east of the border track spared them from the worst surge.
I know it's early. My post is really about what appears to be a huge miss on the surge forecast, particularly into Lake Charles and well inland from there. The coast is going to be very, very bad. But TWC people were just saying, "it's not the 15-20' forecast, but 5' is still a lot of water." If that hold up, that is a bad, bad miss. And I'm really glad if it is.
NoSnowATL
Member
I hope so. I expected to wake up this morning and see 50% or more, of Lake Charles underwater... that's what was "supposed" to happen. In a cat 4, there's still going to be devastating damage and loss of life. But maybe, just maybe, it won;t be as bad as feared.
Claycochaser
Member
I think we need to take into account the role that the marshlands in SWLA play in mitigating the storm surge before we point fingers too much. They act as a very efficient buffer and that is a major reason why its so important to protect them.
Bannerdude
Member
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Dewpoint Dan
Member
Is it just me or are the winds usually not as high as the official wind speed ? I don't think anybody has reported even cat 3 sustained winds.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
To show you how bad the euro was with this storm, Houston only recorded 0.06 of precip and a 25 mph gust. I think with a lot of Mets hugging the euro it prompted some unnecessary decisions. For example, United cancelled all flights into Bush yesterday.
Just to clarify, the strongest winds with a TC will never be measured onshore, they just aren't. Too much friction, etc, those winds will always be over the open water
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Did the storm surge go inland 30-40 miles as predicted ?
Yes, it was very bad. Even it’s members were bad. I really think the euro life line depends on aviation. With the travel ban between us and the eu. It really took a lot of data away...?
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LovingGulfLows
Member
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Not at all....in fact I would say nothing was as bad as you would expect of a hurricane that neared Cat 5 status. In fact, everything felt more like a low-mid Cat 3 storm.