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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

EastAtlwx said:
yeah, its really about to same in terms of winds.. looks to hit metro Atlanta stronger.. but thats just taking things to verbatim. The main thing to take away from this is that the Euro is still on the same notion of severe winds for north and central georgia.View attachment 1177
Click to expand...

Isn't that about where elevation starts ticking up a bit? Looks like it has 90 gusts near Kennesaw MTN.


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Key West, about to get wrecked! Looks like the eye could go right over them!
 
Wow......FFC's AFD is fairly concerning to say the least.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
358 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

...Tropical Storm Conditions Likely For Most of Area...

Overview...
With the northern turn from Irma that we having waiting to see
now occurring along with an overall strengthening of the storm, it
is now almost a certainty that a good portion of our area will
receive a significant period of winds that will easily down trees
and powerlines. This will largely be regardless of exact track
since if it moves directly up the FL peninsula we may see
weakening but a circulation that moves right over us. Contrast
this with a more westerly track which may not weaken as much but
whose center will be west of our area. The results of these
scenarios will be the same with Tropical Storm Force winds for
nearly entire area with gusts possible to low end hurricane force
for the SW corner of the forecast area.

Hazards...
With the next update, will need to make some critical decisions
with the arrival of new TCM wind grids. This will include how much
of watch to convert to warning which will be a significant
portion and if we need to expand watch further north which looks
likely. Not out of the question for a hurricane watch for the
southern tier either if NHC winds increase in the least.

Winds...
Wind field on the storm is currently massive and even
with the compactness of a normal hurricane circulation, this
present storm would cover the entire forecast area with tropical
storm force winds given present radii. Add to this that even
though the storm will weaken significantly, we will see the
typical expansion of wind field, and you get a situation where
entire forecast area is likely to see a significant wind event with
considerable amount of trees and powerlines down.

Rainfall...
QPF from WPC looks on target with 6 to 8 inches possible along and
east of the I75 corridor for our Central GA portion. Current Flash
Flood Watch covers this well and no changes to this aspect
planned.

Tornadoes...
Already looking at a risk for most of the area with isolated
tornadoes and any shift west in the track would only further this
threat. Interestingly though, conditions seem remarkably stable
throughout most of the event with highs only in the 60s for
Monday and cigs less than 500 ft. Of course this will be combated
with very low LCLs so thinking even though instability will be
low, tornado threat should remain elevated.

Deese

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
The long term will be heavily weighted by the track of Irma and
Irma is currently forecast to be moving into AL, close to CSG,
Monday night. The vast majority of the major impacts will be
diminishing/ending Monday night and Tuesday.

The rest of the long term after Irma looks to be determined by a
weakening 500mb trof that is forecast to move e of the area Friday
into Saturday.

Temperatures start below normal then return to normal on Friday.
 
5 AM MAP.. STILL SHIFTING WEST
034247_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Ya it appears ffc is even considering upgrading the new TS warnings further. If necessary
 
I ve got to give BIG KUDOS to the the "inland" NWS offices (BHM, FFC, GSP, CAE, etc) and to the local broadcast mets in ATL DMA for getting word out on IRMA vs Opal in 1995. AS I remember very little was put out in regards to impacts here with Opal and there were more deaths in GA than FL with her.
 
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