I would call that a cat 4 130mph. Backs up the other report from before. BTW, euro looks strong and maybe stronger than last run along the west coast of FL hr 24
0z Euro barely makes landfall around Tampa otherwise goes to the Big Bend area on Monday
You know whats funny/scary....the 00z euro is a LONGER duration event for winds for everyone across the SE *especially GA*. I looked at the 12z euro run and was comparing the 2 runs, and we *all of us, especially GA* are going to see wind gusts *according to the euro* over a longer period of time, and still showing about the same speeds, maybe a few mph less this run, but more spread out and longer duration even thought the track was a little further west inland this run.0z Euro barely makes landfall around Tampa otherwise goes to the Big Bend area on Monday
Larry see my post above about the euro and the wind gusts its showing for us in GA. Even longer duration this run.Interesting model runs at 0Z for FL:
GFS: close to its prior runs but on the east side of the mean
CMC: a little west of its 12Z run and fair amount west of the GFS
UKMET: a rather significant shift east of its 12Z run and east of all the other major models
Euro: vs its 12Z run it is a tiny bit west in SW FL but shifts to tiny bit east in NW FL
yeah, its really about to same in terms of winds.. looks to hit metro Atlanta stronger.. but thats just taking things to verbatim. The main thing to take away from this is that the Euro is still on the same notion of severe winds for north and central georgia.Larry see my post above about the euro and the wind gusts its showing for us in GA. Even longer duration this run.
Larry see my post above about the euro and the wind gusts its showing for us in GA. Even longer duration this run.
Wow, the 50mph+ gusts did expand in N. AL, it was not that strong in past runs here. Starting to get into tropical storm conditions up here taken at verbatim.yeah, its really about to same in terms of winds.. looks to hit metro Atlanta stronger.. but thats just taking things to verbatim. The main thing to take away from this is that the Euro is still on the same notion of severe winds for north and central georgia.View attachment 1177
I honestly don't know. I would semi toss it only because the GFS and EURO are not super far apart. I would say its possible depending on when this sustains a true north motion. I think it was around 18+ hours of gusts to near 50mph+ here and like 12 hours of 75-85mph with some higher gusts than that for 12 hours. *or close to it*I saw that, Chris. Interesting. it is setting up to be a real inland doozy for much of GA per the Euro.
What do you make of the 0Z UKMET shifting well inland? I mean it gets Irma a whopping 40 miles inland/40 miles east of the 0Z Euro and only 20 miles west of the western tip of Lake Okeechobee! This puts SE FL big cities in much worse shape than the other models show for them. Then it moves NNW like the other models but due to its further east starting point, it passes only 30 miles west of Orlando and then near Gainesville! I'm asking because the UKMET has been just about as good as the Euro and really is a good model.for the tropics. What the?