Xtreme Weather
Member
All the little meso's on ref.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
dsaur
Member
Looks like Macon is starting to get rain. I'm interested in wow long until Chris reports a wind increase. T
campamy
Member
This has been one of the most c amazing things I've seen. I know the science of it, but I don't remember ever seeing this before. Especially in so many locations.
I could see that happening as well just a delayed or further east start of turn
Breeze is down a little and rain starting to move in.
pcbjr
Member
other than the "down" ... ditto
Was just looking at on RadarscopeAll the little meso's on ref.
whatalife
Moderator
I hate I haven't been able to join in on the conversation today and I hope everyone in the path of this storm stays safe.
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- Joined
- Sep 4, 2017
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Look at all these rotations geez
Been watching that all day. Some of those are topping out over 50k ft. I know I'm repeating myself but I've never seen curved isolated super cell radar sig's like there are with this thing. I'll be real interested to see how many of the stronger couplets verify. And I don't think we're done. Going to be a scary overnight in SE GA, NE FL. and maybe even into far SE SC. Most of these are strongest over water right now and they tend to weaken as they are brought in closer to the center of the storm. In a few hours we'll see if these things are still developing like this on/over land.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The hurricane guy says he expects the cone to shift East @ 11pm advisory! Saying its on eastern side of 5pm guidance . Have y'all seen the power outage map on TWC we were talking about this morning!? It's "widespread" outages over the WHOLE state of GA and Southwestern 3/4 of SC! Just craziness!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That band coming in near Melbourne really means business.
pcbjr
Member
The whole thing means business ... said with power again ... for a few minutes, no doubt ...
Storm5
Member
Fwiw
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VegasEagle
Member
Crazy on the wind map http://hint.fm/wind/
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Hmm. Tick east for sure on those early guidance models.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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This things about to be over Orlando! But it's picking up speed, 14mph now, was 6-8mph most of the day!Fwiw
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Claycochaser
Member
Still a long way from Orlando...over 100 miles
Cad Wedge NC
Member
East quite a bit just from looking at the radar.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yes, its the NAM, but look at how big it thinks Irma would be when up in deep South GA on the IR sat.
pcbjr
Member
look how big she is right now, for goodness sakes ...Yes, its the NAM, but look at how big it thinks Irma would be when up in deep South GA on the IR sat.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
No doubt she is huge already. The upper level clouds rolled in here around noon and have only become thicker.
Nam looks a little east for the turn
DadOfJax
Member
When you said "NAM...." I already tossed it.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The NAM isn't bad in short range, it's the NAM long range that is an absolute joke.
DadOfJax
Member
Joke period
Storm5
Member
Looks like the 18z it's already on a NNW track by hour 12 in northern Florida
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pcbjr
Member
get it out of here any direction you please ...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Once Irma goes up into South GA, the NAM could very well be serious. Remember, it's a mesoscale model, so anything severe it is good with to some degree.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Even vertical up into space? LOL She will be out of your area tomorrow. However, I am sure it will be a long night ahead for you and many in Florida.get it out of here any direction you please ...
NAM has *from what I can tell* has some 100kt+ winds at 850mb pushing into south and mid ga then into NGA
I know its the NAM but your right its a little later on the NW turn into GA. BTW, has some 100kt+ winds at 850mb when it gets in here.
pcbjr
Member
Beam me up, Scotty ...
As to the rest - Yes it will be and is ...
Storm5
Member
NAM is west of 18z at hour 27. Not but a whole lot but it's no doubt west
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W
WeatherLC
Guest
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
What I am trying to say if you couldn't figure it out is that once Irma reaches South GA, the NAM won't be as bad of a model. The NAM is a mesoscale model, so it is better with storms on land. Maybe not so much direction, but rather severe weather, squall band locations, etc. Not sure how you got " Irma isn't going into S GA" out of it.
Yeah the NAM probably won't be as bad with Irma once it gets deeper into its domain and transitions to a cold core extratropical cyclone, with most of the convection and precipitation asymmetrical weighted to the west and north of the storm, because the model is largely incapable of resolving warm core processes ongoing in the inner cores of tropical cyclones, but tends to be a little better with mid-latitude cyclones.
Patsy Bergeron
Member
Thanks for all of the information over the past few days. Lived in NOLA all my life but never thought I'd be model watching up here in Birmingham! Not really sure what to expect here but regardless of the weather I'll be at work tomorrow. Everyone stay safe!
RollTide18
Member
Irma is a huge storm, expanding wind field, gonna feel like a winter day tomorrow with a howling north wind, is this the south's Sandy? Lol
The 12km and 3km are actually pretty nasty around here if this run is right...from what I can tell, about 45kt sustained winds and about 100kts at 850mb around here tomorrow.