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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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As ARCC said the core of Irma is still intact so if it pops back out over water soon strengthening could/should occur. If the core is disrupted then it will have a harder time reorganizing. It's a challenging forecast at this point especially with the north turn and the potential to parallel Florida to the west. I don't envy the NHC at all

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DadOfJax said:
If people here cared what another forum had to say, we would be there reading. You have the best of the best right here. Read more here, post more over there....it might help them out.
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Could be one of my favorite post of all time.... 10000000+ likes
 
One thing that is increasing is the threat for tornadoes in east Ga and the carolinas. Only using the nam for the sim radar but that band on the eastern flank is going to be mean.
27153f64cbb96d144dffcbffaffa29d6.jpg


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SD said:
One thing that is increasing is the threat for tornadoes in east Ga and the carolinas. Only using the nam for the sim radar but that band on the eastern flank is going to be mean.
27153f64cbb96d144dffcbffaffa29d6.jpg


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What about CAD?


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Tuesday could be a raw day in Alabama with highs in the 50s a howling N to NW wind and rain falling

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DadOfJax said:
If people here cared what another forum had to say, we would be there reading. You have the best of the best right here. Read more here, post more over there....it might help them out.
Click to expand...
Amen!!!! Post of the year!!
Thank you!
 
SD said:
One thing that is increasing is the threat for tornadoes in east Ga and the carolinas. Only using the nam for the sim radar but that band on the eastern flank is going to be mean.
27153f64cbb96d144dffcbffaffa29d6.jpg


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Torcon of 6 for me Monday!
 
SD said:
Tuesday could be a raw day in Alabama with highs in the 50s a howling N to NW wind and rain falling

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If I have power, perhaps I'll make a pot of chili Tuesday.

Edit: Oh yeah, I have a gas cooktop, so can make chili even without power (maybe).
 
DustinWX said:
What about CAD?


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Any residual dry air will be eroded by the SE flow around the center of Irma. Any where east of the center will see dew points jump into the 60s/70 for some areas it will be a short period as the system starts to wrap dry continental air in during the ET transition

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SD said:
As ARCC said the core of Irma is still intact so if it pops back out over water soon strengthening could/should occur. If the core is disrupted then it will have a harder time reorganizing. It's a challenging forecast at this point especially with the north turn and the potential to parallel Florida to the west. I don't envy the NHC at all

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I don't either. Still a very challenging forecast
 
First tornado warning in Florida, from Irmas outer bands!
 
Eye visible on Key West long range radar, nothing wrong with inner core of Irma, unfortunately will have no problem rebounding from it's Cuban visit....
 
metwannabe said:
Eye visible on Key West long range radar, nothing wrong with inner core of Irma, unfortunately will have no problem rebounding from it's Cuban visit....
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I am interested to see if it really goes into Cuba that much.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
NHC has a lot of explaining to do. Just last night they basically said interaction with Cuba wouldnt have much impact on Cuba, despite knowing full well it would be interacting with Cuba for a fairly long time.
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Oh yeah? Because this storm has always behaved EXACTLY as all the models have said it would? Please.:rolleyes:
 
SD said:
One thing that is increasing is the threat for tornadoes in east Ga and the carolinas. Only using the nam for the sim radar but that band on the eastern flank is going to be mean.
27153f64cbb96d144dffcbffaffa29d6.jpg


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Click to expand...

Show this early in the morning and thought the same thing. Differently something to watch and not to sleep on.


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JB just put on FB his forecast is to get to a Cat 5 again before landfall!
Sidenote: Disney Parks closing at 9 tonight, until further notice!
 
Couple of whacked out zigzag tracks otherwise that's a consistent tight cluster, west coast of Fl it is, personally I think any shifts west are done now
11L_tracks_12z.png
 
deltadog03 said:
Good point! Squeeze play
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What gets me is if you and I have to endure this thing, I'd at least like to be able to watch it :) Why do these big bears always lumber by at night. You'll hear the thump, or crash, but won't see what it is. When trees go I kind of like to be able to look out and see them. This way you'll only see it if it's in the house with you :) Looks like you and me will hear some fierce winds. Tony
 
dsaur said:
What gets me is if you and I have to endure this thing, I'd at least like to be able to watch it :) Why do these big bears always lumber by at night. You'll hear the thump, or crash, but won't see what it is. When trees go I kind of like to be able to look out and see them. This way you'll only see it if it's in the house with you :) Looks like you and me will hear some fierce winds. Tony
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I agree
 
The only way she makes a run at high Cat 4 or 5 which I feel is very doubtful at this time, is if it continues far enough west to get in the GOM if it continues along the Cuban coast then takes that sharp turn north into Fl will best case scenario for Fl imho
 
metwannabe said:
Couple of whacked out zigzag tracks otherwise that's a consistent tight cluster, west coast of Fl it is, personally I think any shifts west are done now
11L_tracks_12z.png
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A few almost due N into GA into upstate! I think euro or GFS had that track last night?
 
Lineman just posted for people connecting generators to turn off their main switch or they will send power to the lines they are working on and injuer or kill the people trying to repair the lines. You can not just plug and turn on!
 
Irma is going to go over some pretty warm waters in a good environment for strengthening, so I suppose it's still not out of the question for it to strengthen to a Cat 4 again
 
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