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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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BHS1975 said:
Hopefully it won't .


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Hope not but if we continue to trend that shortwave diving through the deep south farther S and stronger then we will see the tendency for models to show a westward solution again. Right now its almost acting slightly like a kicker which is part of the reason we saw the models (minus the GFS) jump east last night. There is just a lot of little nuance things within the pattern that will result in such a large track difference.
 
SD said:
Hope not but if we continue to trend that shortwave diving through the deep south farther S and stronger then we will see the tendency for models to show a westward solution again. Right now its almost acting slightly like a kicker which is part of the reason we saw the models (minus the GFS) jump east last night. There is just a lot of little nuance things within the pattern that will result in such a large track difference.
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good points
 
New map from Chris Simmons:
21316348_1370027076428750_4090281632974424808_o.jpg
 
I see the Euro went east at 0z. Maybe it'll eventually miss the phase and stay juuuuuussssssstttttt offshore in the end.
 
deltadog03 said:
Maybe gawx can help, or anyone else, but hurricanes love to get pulled or rugged near the islands when passing westward on the north side. New map coming soon
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I don't know, Chris. I'm not saying that isn't a possible tendency, however. But I thought that, if anything, they may tend to go for the water ASAP when over land....a perpendicular crossing of islands as opposed to lingering longer. Maybe Webber can chime in if he reads this and knows the answer. Also, maybe JB can answer this tonight. I think JB believes that they "seek out" water in many cases.
 
There's little question about the recent easterly trend of the models near the SE US. However, do others agree that she looks to be moving a bit south of the model consensus causing a higher threat for the eye to cross at least the NE portion of PR? I first noticed this last evening. Opinions? If so, is that inconsistent with the recent eastward trend of the models near the SE US or not?
 
GaWx said:
There's little question about the recent easterly trend of the models near the SE US. However, do others agree that she looks to be moving a bit south of the model consensus causing a higher threat for the eye to cross at least the NE portion of PR? I first noticed this last evening. Opinions? If so, is that inconsistent with the recent eastward trend of the models near the SE US or not?
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It looks to my eyes , to still be moving W , on satellite and radar, also looks like it's becoming asymmetrical on the W side a little bit?
 
GaWx said:
There's little question about the recent easterly trend of the models near the SE US. However, do others agree that she looks to be moving a bit south of the model consensus causing a higher threat for the eye to cross at least the NE portion of PR? I first noticed this last evening. Opinions? If so, is that inconsistent with the recent eastward trend of the models near the SE US or not?
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No doubt. She is way south of the models. I think that Irma is just so strong of a storm that it is moving more west than NW. I feel that if she doesn't start moving more NW, Puerto Rico will get a severe hit from Irma, and possibly cause a major change in Irma's strength. This may get really bad if it doesn't move NW soon, and I feel something is up with the models. Not sure what, but as I said, I think that the strength is too much for the models to handle, so that may be the case.
 
GaWx said:
There's little question about the recent easterly trend of the models near the SE US. However, do others agree that she looks to be moving a bit south of the model consensus causing a higher threat for the eye to cross at least the NE portion of PR? I first noticed this last evening. Opinions? If so, is that inconsistent with the recent eastward trend of the models near the SE US or not?
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I am interested in seeing if it does get closer to PR.
 
ForsythSnow said:
No doubt. She is way south of the models. I think that Irma is just so strong of a storm that it is moving more west than NW. I feel that if she doesn't start moving more NW, Puerto Rico will get a severe hit from Irma, and possibly cause a major change in Irma's strength. This may get really bad if it doesn't move NW soon, and I feel something is up with the models. Not sure what, but as I said, I think that the strength is too much for the models to handle, so that may be the case.
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if west movement really dominates through the island, could that effect the track also? Something more of what the CMC was showing yesterday?
 
Definitely has a northerly component the last few frames of satellite loop. I would say its WNW ATM.

I may stand corrected looking at Puerto Rico radar.....geez!
 
Right now the 12z nam is a bit north of irma current position
 
If Irma is already further south than what the models show, how much can we trust the models?
 
Brick Tamland said:
If Irma is already further south than what the models show, how much can we trust the models?
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I am losing faith in all of the models at the moment unless she turns northward. I am interested to hear from others about if Irma is just too strong to be handled by the models at the moment.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I am losing faith in all of the models at the moment unless she turns northward. I am interested to hear from others about if Irma is just too strong to be handled by the models at the moment.
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I have seen some pretty big busts from the NHC and models before on storms, but one of the most memorable was just a TS going south of that area in the Caribbean. Anyone have a steering wind map of right now? Maybe the steering winds aren't quite right on the models or Irma is just very resistant.
 
Irma doesn't appear to be that much further south than what the models depicted. Remember, models are there for guidance. They're not a forecast.

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WeatherWatch said:
Irma doesn't appear to be that much further south than what the models depicted. Remember, models are there for guidance. They're not a forecast.

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FWIW NHC's track in the short term has been nailing the track of Irma's eye so far. It'll be interesting to see if that remains the same throughout today.
 
I was looking at the global wind map and the wind patterns seem to back up the idea that this thing is continuing west instead of going the direction of forecast. I know steering winds are different than the winds shown on the global wind map, I just thought it was worth mentioning. May be completely irrelevant, I'm still learning.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
FWIW NHC's track in the short term has been nailing the track of Irma's eye so far. It'll be interesting to see if that remains the same throughout today.
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But look how the eye has been aiming right for E PR assuming it keeps moving the way it has the last few hours. The heading of at least the last few hours is imo clearly SW of the NHC track and most models.
 
It looks like Irma is moving WNW now. From what it looks like, the eye is going to just miss PR barely. Still, PR will receive the greater impacts since the eye will be so close.

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GaWx said:
There's little question about the recent easterly trend of the models near the SE US. However, do others agree that she looks to be moving a bit south of the model consensus causing a higher threat for the eye to cross at least the NE portion of PR? I first noticed this last evening. Opinions? If so, is that inconsistent with the recent eastward trend of the models near the SE US or not?
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Larry - I'm swamped at work because folks want stuff done this week, just in case ... so no time this AM to study, but a short gander supports your observations from this end, FWIW.
Thanks!
Keep us updated and lets hope that the NHC shows this thing OTS at the next full advisory!
Best!
Phil
 
Not much change other than location/pressure being slightly higher

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 6
Location: 18.2°N 64.0°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 918 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph
 
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