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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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bud006 said:
I normally don't get involved in tropical chats -- winter snows in North Georgia is my thing -- but this system has my attention. Living just west of Lake Lanier and having spent years living on the Georgia coast, some of the model outputs are just frightening to watch in that regard. Of course, they're model outputs, and we're eight days out :).

Will be lurking and learning as much as I can, and plan to donate as soon as I am able. Thanks all in advance for your guidance, knowledge and insight. Let's stay safe.

Mods: Please move to banter if so desired and my apologizes for interrupting the discussion flow.

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Welcome to board. Most of us including me are true winnies when it come to winterstorms, but this is addicting as well.
 
Storm5 said:
Live thread will be turned on at 9:30 eastern ( after met goes to bed ) The thread will update automatically for members. If your not a member take 30 seconds and sign up

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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How long will the live thread last night? Just oz run?
 
Another run another solution, curious if that ull in so
Storm5 said:
Live thread will be turned on at 9:30 eastern ( after met goes to bed ) The thread will update automatically for members. If your not a member take 30 seconds and sign up

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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You're not lying.... Lol. Love live thread sure hope we get to use it plenty this winter as well.
 
I hate to say this but after today's model runs and the trend of the day I'm actually starting to feel better about my neck of the woods of course this is very worrisome for others. I wish this on no one.... still hoping for the ots solution
 
accu35 said:
How long will the live thread last night? Just oz run?
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It's gonna run all until we are finished with Irma . Will probably turn it off during the overnight at least the first few days of the week then leave it on 24 hours a day starting mid week

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
I hate to say this but after today's model runs and the trend of the day I'm actually starting to feel better about my neck of the woods of course this is very worrisome for others. I wish this on no one.... still hoping for the ots solution
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Lots of time for this to trend towards your area or OTS.
 
Early 0z track guidance.... seeing some of those hard north turns just before Fl

11L_tracks_latest.png
 
Met. DeeTeee today with some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-update-on-irma-and-the-risk-to-se-usa/
 
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Thankful the western gulf is hardly mentioned the past couple days. Realizing it's a long way out. Still watching closely, but grateful the western gulf (SWLA particularly) seems less and less likely for this monster.
 
GaWx said:
Met. DeeTeee today with some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."
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Need to watch them all, just like CNBC and Fox to get the full flavor.
At least no "FOOK" and big dog ... :p
 
pcbjr said:
Need to watch them all, just like CNBC and Fox to get the full flavor.
At least no "FOOK" and big dog ... :p
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Definitely. Throwing any model out due to one factor is just silly at this point. Look at Harvey, we joked about the strength being too high, but it really did get powerful. Only model I would throw in the trash is the HMON for the overpowered monster it keeps spitting out. It just isn't possible.
 
GaWx said:
Met. DeeTeee today with some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-update-on-irma-and-the-risk-to-se-usa/
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Someone should ask him about the HMON and it's 856mb forecast for Irma lmao
 
deltadog03 said:
For now, it appears the North side movement of the NHC track is over. She is driving SW hardcore right now and actually looks like it may go south of points.
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Yes it is.... approaching 17N it looks like and their southern most forecast point is 16.8N
 
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