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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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The long term estimated motion is still at 260 at 12 kt. ASCAT data indicated that TS force wind field has expanded. The GFS may not be over done after all with Irma's overall diameter.

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Here is the graphic of the wind field as I mentioned that Irma's wind field is expanding.
21c0fd8eabb7bc848e07c1f955db1c4d.jpg


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From the last model runs shown only "good" news is that Irma would be weakening at landfall, which is a good trend... I do have concerns with some of the GOM tracks ans Mid Sept systems that hit pandhandle tend to "rabbit" up GA/AL line with widespread wind damage.. (Eloise 75, Opal 95) and same for Hugo ref Metro Charlotte
 
Storm5 said:
The 18z gefs ensembles should be fun

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Click to expand...

I don't know about your definition of fun but the mean is 100 miles further west, riding up the FL east coast just east of the 12Z EPS mean. So, this run implies a greater FL and a much greater E GOM threat vs the last 3 GEFS runs. Again, sorry Phil, I'm not picking on you. I'm only telling you what I see. ;)
 
I know the JMA isn't one of the best models, but it brings Irma up through the eastern GOM and making landfall over the FL panhandle.

I'm so ready to get to the time of where we'll know Irma will make landfall officially. If Irma does indeed make landfall.


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Referencing what Webber said occurs with the GEFS at times, so many of the 18Z members are awfully close together going up/near FL...almost as if they're not independent runs even though we know they are.
 
GaWx said:
Referencing what Webber said occurs with the GEFS at times, so many of the 18Z members are awfully close together going up/near FL...almost as if they're not independent runs even though we know they are.
Click to expand...
Oh man yes they are very close. Us here in GA and SC are going to see some crazy members for oue areas.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_32.png
 
Well, if Irma comes up right through FL (even the west side of FL) everyone across the SE will experience the effects of Irma pretty much. I'm sure we'll all hate that.

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