• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

Status
Not open for further replies.
New track shifts east but on left side of guidance.. Big model shifts so ots is certainly a possibility again.
a6bd39025f49bb97b64e1a18b8fc0bf7.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
From NHC....
The official forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Yep 6z GFS is slightly more West and landfall definitely further SW on GA/SC border.... I don't know gut tells me not to buy the far East or OTS solutions until we see 48 hours of all models agreeing
 
Arcc said:
For the past few hours, Irma has taken a much more western jog. It will be close to PR and now possibly rake the island with the eyewall. Looks like a ERC may be starting.
Click to expand...
I’m curious about that too. If she does gain some latitude soon she is on a direct hit path with PR
 
Congratulationsto TXJordan from Houston for becoming our 800th member. You've won a southernwx shirt . I message you to get your address. Welcome to the board !!

800 members in 8 months is amazing!!! Thanks to everyone that stops by the site and makes this place so much fun !!

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Storm5 said:
Look at how far the mean shifted east on the 06z GEFS . A few more days of that and it will stay offshore. That would be GREAT news . Let's hope the east trend continues today

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Just barely hits the outer banks of NC here. Crazy east shift.
 
So the 6z GFS operational run shifted slightly West while it's Ensemble members shifted East I have a feeling this is going to be a crazy model watching day too bad I'm stuck in a classroom the next two days. Y'all post some great stuff I'll check and read every once in awhile

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Irma trucking it pretty much due west....maybe WWWNW. She is just doing what she wants. ANY land interaction over the next 24 hours will throw HUGE shifts in her final destination. Going to be a very interesting day for sure. I am still sticking to a far eastern Gulf storm until consistency is shown for a few runs.
 
DadOfJax said:
Irma trucking it pretty much due west....maybe WWWNW. She is just doing what she wants. ANY land interaction over the next 24 hours will throw HUGE shifts in her final destination. Going to be a very interesting day for sure. I am still sticking to a far eastern Gulf storm until consistency is shown for a few runs.
Click to expand...
Maybe gawx can help, or anyone else, but hurricanes love to get pulled or rugged near the islands when passing westward on the north side. New map coming soon
 
Storm5 said:
Look at how far the mean shifted east on the 06z GEFS . A few more days of that and it will stay offshore. That would be GREAT news . Let's hope the east trend continues today

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That would be great, except I am concerned it won't go far enough east and hit NC.
 
Sure, there is plenty of time, but time is starting to closing in. If Irma does make it further east, that's better news for FL. I do think that Irma will be pulled in to the WNW or NW (give or take) making landfall some where either in GA, SC or in between. At least the model's are now in agreement (at least the GFS and Euro anyway) that Irma will likely take the east route of FL.

As you can see from this morning's run of the 6z GFS that there is a trough over the NW Atlantic, Jose downstream, Irma surrounded by a ridge to the north and west. With this setup, Irma as no choice but to go WNW/NW into the SE coast.
cb87af0e1177e4765fcada0a5c5c8726.jpg


Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
She will do what she wants. She's powerful enough to make her her own weather pattern and will go where she wants.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
She will do what she wants. She's powerful enough to make her her own weather pattern and will go where she wants.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Sounds like my wife. She's a redhead.
 
metwannabe said:
New track shifts east but on left side of guidance.. Big model shifts so ots is certainly a possibility again.
a6bd39025f49bb97b64e1a18b8fc0bf7.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

This looks like one of those ads for those male enhancement pills.
 
Also while extremely impressive she isn’t looking so hot on the west side attm. Maybe a little weakening today?
 
SD said:
There's just so much to be ironed out still across the US at 500mb. Maybe we can iron it out by landfall ::eyeroll::

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Hopefully it won't .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top