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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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dsaur said:
Is your old house built for wind gusts? I know you don't want an ice storm on it, but then who dies, lol. T
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It's been through Hugo and was fine... I would assume Irma will move quickly too! Shingles, that's another story lol.
 
Here is an interesting snippet of a rarely used word from KGSP's latest discussion:

The placement of an
upper low over the southeast next weekend continues to be vital to
the track of Irma...as unpredictable Fujiwhara interaction with that
feature will likely determine details of the final track.
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From Allan Huffman super averages if you will of all 12z model data today
2f83ac058f44c221ad459a4796f23974.jpg


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Now its a race with that energy and a direct landfall on Florida or not. Still waiting.
 
Hopefully over the next 24-36 The models come closer together cause right now they are not close

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Man it's looking like the eye will miss Florida.. here comes the North movement paralleling the East FL coast... at least looks to be

cant say for sure yet.
 
Shawn said:
Now its a race with that energy and a direct landfall on Florida or not. Still waiting.
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I hope it's true but still not buying into such an easterly shift; I'll ask again, if anyone knows, since the answer would shed incredible light on the 18Z credibility - Has the 18Z got the benefit of recon?
 
12z GFS:
previous.png
\

18z (current same time):

current.png
 
So we have the hrs east of Florida , the CMC west and the Euro right down the middle

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I still feel the general idea is going to be a south FL landfall and then up the coast...Matthew from last year but worse and comes inland instead of curving back out.
 
This is scary for my GA friends and even SC somethings about to happen.. OTS, i don't think so.

EDIT: Took a bigger East Jog it looks away from East coast of FL!
 
GfS is really ventilating Irma just E of Fl so it should have an absurd pressure at that point. It's about to start mingling with the shortwave so we may see it begin a westward track around the fl/ga border

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Current Irma track seems off compare to this gfs run.
 
It hooks up, but it meandered Eastward.. big East shift so far versus previous run.
 
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