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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Offshore
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Storm5 said:
Yep stays offshore no landfall this run

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There's absolutely no room for error whatsoever in this forecast from the Euro (taken verbatim), even the most subtle shift in intensity & track of Irma and the placement, timing, and intensity of the S/Ws propagating by to tis north and Irma means the difference between a major hurricane landfall on the SE US or a TC that harmlessly scoots out to sea.

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Webberweather53 said:
There's absolutely no room for error whatsoever in this forecast from the Euro (taken verbatim), even the most subtle shift in intensity & track of Irma and the placement, timing, and intensity of the S/Ws propagating by to tis north and Irma means the difference between a major hurricane landfall on the SE US or a TC that harmlessly scoots out to sea.

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Also if it interacts with PR and weakens some it opens the door for a further west track as well as you pointed out

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Webberweather53 said:
There's absolutely no room for error whatsoever in this forecast from the Euro (taken verbatim), even the most subtle shift in intensity & track of Irma and the placement, timing, and intensity of the S/Ws propagating by to tis north and Irma means the difference between a major hurricane landfall on the SE US or a TC that harmlessly scoots out to sea.

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Webb - So well said. The only "issue" I have is that this is a model run and not a "forecast". There remains so much to happen and data not yet available before anyone forecasts ... (not implying you suggest a forecast, but some folks seem to think God wrote the Euro and it is part of the Bible) ... :confused:
 
Storm5 said:
Also if it interacts with PR and weakens some it opens the door for a further west track as well

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Puerto Rico probably wouldn't harm the circulation too much and it usually doesn't have a terribly significant impact on TC intensity especially for large TCs, but Hispaniola most certainly would. If the Euro forecast was even 100 miles further southwest and ran into Hispaniola that run, this would have ended up in the central Gulf of Mexico instead of offshore the SE US... There's usually a lot of non linearity wrt interaction w/ the Greater Antilles
 
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Webberweather53 said:
There's absolutely no room for error whatsoever in this forecast from the Euro (taken verbatim), even the most subtle shift in intensity & track of Irma and the placement, timing, and intensity of the S/Ws propagating by to tis north and Irma means the difference between a major hurricane landfall on the SE US or a TC that harmlessly scoots out to sea.

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Definitely no room for error if taken verbatim, However, I think that over the past several runs, the Euro is dead clueless about the H5 setup in the mid to long range. It keeps flipping to every solution possible and doesn't settle on one. It is becoming a bit annoying actually that it can't find a certain setup. I expect the next run to be a totally different one at this point.
 
pcbjr said:
Webb - So well said. The only "issue" I have is that this is a model run and not a "forecast". There remains so much to happen and data not yet available before anyone forecasts ... (not implying you suggest a forecast, but some folks seem to think God wrote the Euro and it is part of the Bible) ... :confused:
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I'm only trying to explain what's going on in "x" scenario and provide a broader physical interpretation and get others (esp new bloggers who may not be as familiar w/ meteorology and may take these model runs as forecasts) to recognize the vastness of the amount of uncertainty at hand here as opposed to regurgitating a model and not digging any deeper into the physicality behind it.
 
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