Still having model differences.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
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Euro looks way west. Like rides Cuba and coming north almost to Tampa? At work so can’t we much.
On a N/NE heading through Florida.....
center over Jacksonville @162
center over Jacksonville @162
Jesse
Member
Well I'm out of the woods, thank goodness. Seems pretty unanimous at this point.
If this hits Florida, the gas prices will go up.
Nomanslandva
Member
Is the Euro correct with the placement at hour 6 vs where the storm actually is now?
Btw run the loop, check the LatLon button and you can clearly see it's gaining some latitude, nothing major but it's N of due west now..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-vis-long.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-vis-long.html
Looks to me to about spot on
Yeah, it's been looking like Irma has been moving WNW for over an hour now.
So we have euro west and gfs east. Split the middle? Lol
SimeonNC
Member
As I said a few days ago, wait for the EPS. I don't believe that Irma will stay on Cuba for that long.
Wait for the EPS
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pcbjr
Member
Sitting down here, and reading all of this great info, the only substantive thing I might add is:
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm going to wait until 18Z to see if we have a trend or a weird run. New data will be in too as they are doing drops around the plane now.
Looks like an ever so slight north shift in the eps through 72 hours.... slight
Ahhh I love model madness ahead of a potentially huge event
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God help those folks in Antigua and Barbuda
12z eps shifted east of the 0z.... mean probably right along the east coast of Fl. Good grief
Still a huge spread though..... wow
Still a huge spread though..... wow
pcbjr
Member
What link are you looking at?
Weatherbell.... honestly it's only a slight shift east with a handful of members ots, looks like two concentrations 1) up east GOM/W coast of Fl and other east coast of Fl. Either way Fl, Ga, SC eat up with spaghetti lines
Hmm neither pivitol WX or tropical tidbits shows it has started yet.
Edit: oh pay site, just had to get ahead of the rest of us huh.
Weatherbell running live spaghetti plots and here is what Ryan posted....
Pivotal or Tropical tidbits will not update until eps is completed....
pcbjr
Member
Free trial right now Lol.... I'm sure I'll get suckered into subscribing.
And actually weathernerds.org has already posted them so here you go...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Ugh. That isn't good at all. I'm beginning to think we are not going to know where it's going at all until it decides to change course due to just the intensity. Might have to trust the HMON and HWRF at this point. The Euro and CMC were too weak.
Storm5
Member
Shotgun was right lol
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Bones
Member
Well that Helped !!!And actually weathernerds.org has already posted them so here you go...
Didn't HWRF go east and HMON go west or vice versa? Not much help either right now...
Storm5
Member
Good grief the spread grew on the 12z eps
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
HWRF went west, HMON went east. That's why I am waiting until 18Z. One has to go somewhere else.
Irma has been definitely gaining lat. in the past few frames. Maybe moving more NW than WNW like I said earlier.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-long.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-long.html
NWMSGuy
Member
Even a few members looks like AL/MS hit. No thanks!Good grief the spread grew on the 12z eps
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pcbjr
Member
Here's hoping the optical conclusion is correct and it's not just a wobble ... NHC will be telling in a while ...
Storm5
Member
Over 70 guests on right now . Please sign up , we might have to disable the guest view option later in the week as things get busier . Don't get left out!
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Xtreme Weather
Member
Have to wonder just how long it moves N looking at spreads most want to back it back to the NW eventually so is the turn N even NE going to be as pronounced... Just thinking out loud here... Been at work all day tough to get good detail on phone
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Storm5
Member
Look at the spread lol. The NW track inland still very pronounced
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