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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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GaWx said:
The maps for the 18Z GEFS show just over half of the members in the E GOM, which by my count is higher than at least the other 3 runs of today. Is this a sign of things to come? With the projected track to near the northern coast of central Cuba moving WNW, it would be a rather common track to then go into the Gulf in early to mid Sep.
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I would agree with you for the most part but the 12z while it had more members up Fl spine also had some further west and very few east, this run had more just off the w. coast of Fl but none west of the panhandle and as Carysnow pointed out there was a little split with more off the east coast.... look at the images below.
AL11_2017090412_GEFS_large.png


AL11_2017090418_GEFS_large.png
 
18z HMON is over the FL Keys at hr 126 moving NW, it hasn't made the north turn yet so SE FL (Miami area) is in the NW quadrant of the storm during this timeframe.

hmon_mslp_wind_11L_43.png
 
18z HWRF is SW of HMON, but it starts to make the northerly turn at the very end of the run.
fBSRGoK.gif
 
West trend in effect now. Looks like most showing it hitting Florida and turning north, but still a few have it turning north before hitting Florida and hitting SC or NC. Going to be a long week
 
This may sound funny, but best case is this shoots the strait and landfall somewhere around east FL panhandle. Not only do storms historically weaken upon landfall, the surge threat is way less.
 
Arcc said:
This may sound funny, but best case is this shoots the strait and landfall somewhere around east FL panhandle. Not only do storms historically weaken upon landfall, the surge threat is way less.
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If you mean the Big Bend - the water is 2' deep ... but you basically have 40 miles of inland Seminole Swamp ...
 
Eric Blake just tweeted he's reminded of the infamous 1926 Miami hurricane

Hundreds drowned then when Lake Okeechobee flooded
 
Curious question, if it was to go north along the western side of Florida, would it possibly weaken faster since the right side of the eye wall would be more likely to be onshore instead of it going up floridas east coast and having the eye wall stay more over water?
 
Snow_chaser said:
Curious question, if it was to go north along the western side of Florida, would it possibly weaken faster since the right side of the eye wall would be more likely to be onshore instead of it going up floridas east coast and having the eye wall stay more over water?
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There are other dynamics, such as a bath water shallow Gulf vs a deeper Atl, so it's not an A+B = C equation. Plus a Gulf run, coming in close to N or S of Tampa would likely surge much worse than a NE landfall near say the Space Coast or Jax (since the movement would likely be in either case W to E) ... in many respects ... pick your poison
 
pcbjr said:
There are other dynamics, such as a bath water shallow Gulf vs a deeper Atl, so it's not an A+B = C equation. Plus a Gulf run, coming in close to N or S of Tampa would likely surge much worse than a NE landfall near say the Space Coast or Jax (since the movement would likely be in either case W to E) ... in many respects ... pick your poison
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Thanks for answering,
 
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