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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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~ 50-60 % of the EPS suite eventually hits the southeastern US, definitely a dramatic uptick from the previous runs... The forecasts can change a lot the next 2-3 days as the infusion of hurricane hunter and NOAA G-IV upper level data into the NWP models could lead to large, non-linear alterations in Irma's internal structure, intensity, and ambient steering flow.
 
I just looked at all the models and.... oh man. Let's hope for a change for the better after those runs, or some may learn the horrors that many in Florida face. I don't like seeing a strong hurricane inland over Raleigh or near it per the Euro. Here is a totally different scenario per the NAVGEM. It would be worth watching it too, as it seemed to do well with Hermine last year I believe. Phil definitely will be against this model and I am too, but it's a plausible solution.:confused:
navgem_mslp_pcpn_seus_30.png
 
The NAVGEM is a perfect example of what Levi was talking about as a scenario for a southeast threat. The GFS also seems close to this, but the NAVGEM is more apparent. The trough degrades and the highs bridge over providing no northerly route, putting the southeast in a dangerous situation.
navgem_z500a_us_31.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Euro shifting south thru 24 hr...
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I just got a look at both GFS (0z and 6z) and EURO (0z) and its amazing how the models just can't figure out whats going to happen. As you know, they are all over the place. LOL What I saw that was interesting, and I think the first time seeing it, is that there looked to almost be a BEND back NW after the initial N shot just east of FL
 
ForsythSnow said:
The NAVGEM is a perfect example of what Levi was talking about as a scenario for a southeast threat. The GFS also seems close to this, but the NAVGEM is more apparent. The trough degrades and the highs bridge over providing no northerly route, putting the southeast in a dangerous situation.
navgem_z500a_us_31.png
Click to expand...

Yeah, if you take the GFS and weaken the trough down due to still over amplication, this is what you get. I could easily see this setup playing out. Irma hits Florida, crosses the extreme NE GOM before second landfall east of Apalachicola. That or running up the spine of FL into GA.
 
deltadog03 said:
I just got a look at both GFS (0z and 6z) and EURO (0z) and its amazing how the models just can't figure out whats going to happen. As you know, they are all over the place. LOL What I saw that was interesting, and I think the first time seeing it, is that there looked to almost be a BEND back NW after the initial N shot just east of FL
Click to expand...

Yeah the bend back to the NW is hinging on a remnant upper level trough getting stuck underneath a burgeoning Rex Block over southern Canada and we won't begin to know the minor details with this steering flow for another 3-4 days or so. As I mentioned yesterday, if this storm were to directly hit the southeastern US coast, it's a more dangerous pattern given that there wouldnt be a positively tilted trough to the west trying to shear it apart from the southwest and make a large sweeping turn up the coastline, potentially ingesting dry air in the process...
 
ForsythSnow said:
I just looked at all the models and.... oh man. Let's hope for a change for the better after those runs, or some may learn the horrors that many in Florida face. I don't like seeing a strong hurricane inland over Raleigh or near it per the Euro. Here is a totally different scenario per the NAVGEM. It would be worth watching it too, as it seemed to do well with Hermine last year I believe. Phil definitely will be against this model and I am too, but it's a plausible solution.:confused:
navgem_mslp_pcpn_seus_30.png
Click to expand...
Biting my tongue ... :mad:
 
Arcc said:
Yeah, if you take the GFS and weaken the trough down due to still over amplication, this is what you get. I could easily see this setip playing out. Irma hits Florida, crosses the extreme NE GOM before second landfall east of Apalachicola. That or running up the spine of FL into GA.
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What we really don't want to see is this trend into the east-central Gulf of Mexico, take a course through the Florida Straits and over the all you can eat buffet of TCHP over the loop current and its associated eddies... Still definitely a legitimate shot here that Irma runs into Hispaniola too after day 3 and ends up well into the Gulf so there's a lot left to sort out atm.
 
Considering the 0Z/6Z model run consensus as well as trends since yesterday and despite it still being a whopping 2K+ miles away and ~7-9 days out from a potential hit, I'm significantly increasing the chance in my mind for a CONUS hit from 25% to 50%. The trends are undeniably consistent now. In considering this, I think the chances for a Mid-Atlantic US hit are actually falling but the chances for a SE US hit are solidly rising. No offense, Phil, but the chances for a FL hit and even a Gulf coast hit (either with or without a FL hit) are going up quite a bit vs how they were looking yesterday. Much of this increased FL/Gulf chance is assuming the model trends will trend even further SW in coming days from where they already are.

I won't yet go above 50% due to it still being so far away in terms of distance and timing and keeping in mind that the ingestion of NOAA G-IV as well as recon data could conceivably lead to a significant trend change of its own in a different, perhaps less threatening, direction. But if that data were to result in a continuation of the current trends, I'd then likely raise chances in my mind to well over 50%. But there already being a 50% CONUS chance hit rate for a TC as far away in time and distance as it still is is quite high considering all of the possibilities, especially typical recurve chances east of the CONUS from where it currently is.

**Edited to say ~7-9 days out rather than ~8-9 days out as a hit as early as Sunday is quite possible in FL per model consensus.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
What we really don't want to see is this trend into the east-central Gulf of Mexico, take a course through the Florida Straits and over the all you can eat buffet of TCHP over the loop current and its associated eddies... Still definitely a legitimate shot here that Irma runs into Hispaniola too after day 3 and ends up well into the Gulf so there's a lot left to sort out atm.
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Yeah, Irma is wanting to play a little close to the shreader. With each model getting closer to PR , a hit there may throw a big wrench in everything.

11L_tracks_latest.png


6z hurricane models. Amazing how much west they have moved since yesterday.
 
Webberweather53 said:
What we really don't want to see is this trend into the east-central Gulf of Mexico, take a course through the Florida Straits and over the all you can eat buffet of TCHP over the loop current and its associated eddies... Still definitely a legitimate shot here that Irma runs into Hispaniola too after day 3 and ends up well into the Gulf so there's a lot left to sort out atm.
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I will gladly pass on that solution. That would be disastrous for too many. That would also restart the Gulf coast hype train, which would send many into panic. The probably best case at the moment is either OTS or it shreds itself to death in the islands and curves up Florida as a weak depression avoiding water for the most part, but the odds are very low of that happening. OTS is more likely at the moment. And I can't imagine the threat of an inland tropical storm if a cat 4 or 5 makes landfall on the NE Gulf coast. Something of that strength with little to shred it would survive at least a day inland as it moved north at that strength, right?
 
I don't like seeing the GFS and Euro both showing a NC landfall. I know the GFS can be horrible, but both of them showing it is very concerning.
What had the HWRF model been showing? I know it did well with Hermine, and a other model that starts with a H did, too.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the bend back to the NW is hinging on a remnant upper level trough getting stuck underneath a burgeoning Rex Block over southern Canada and we won't begin to know the minor details with this steering flow for another 3-4 days or so. As I mentioned yesterday, if this storm were to directly hit the southeastern US coast, it's a more dangerous pattern given that there wouldnt be a positively tilted trough to the west trying to shear it apart from the southwest and make a large sweeping turn up the coastline, potentially ingesting dry air in the process...
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I agree 100% this **COULD** be one of the cases that you mentioned above where we are banking on the fact that as it gets closer its gonna get sheared to death from that incoming SW flow or positively tilted trof. This one is going to be super tough to forecast until the end game. I will say this, she is trucking SW right now. The further this "buries" SW...the harder its going to be to sweep this away from the SE coast. Great points about the non-positively trof that isn't forecast to be there *like usual*
 
GaWx said:
Considering the 0Z/6Z model run consensus as well as trends since yesterday and despite it still being a whopping 2K+ miles away and ~8-9 days out from a potential hit, I'm significantly increasing the chance in my mind for a CONUS hit from 25% to 50%. The trends are undeniably consistent now. In considering this, I think the chances for a Mid-Atlantic US hit are actually falling but the chances for a SE US hit are solidly rising. No offense, Phil, but the chances for a FL hit and even a Gulf coast hit (either with or without a FL hit) are going up quite a bit vs how they were looking yesterday. Much of this increased FL/Gulf chance is assuming the model trends will trend even further SW in coming days from where they already are.

I won't yet go above 50% due to it still being so far away in terms of distance and timing and keeping in mind that the ingestion of NOAA G-IV as well as recon data could conceivably lead to a significant trend change of its own in a different, perhaps less threatening, direction. But if that data were to result in a continuation of the current trends, I'd then likely raise chances in my mind to well over 50%. But there already being a 50% CONUS chance hit rate for a TC as far away in time and distance as it still is is quite high considering all of the possibilities, especially typical recurve chances east of the CONUS from where it currently is.
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No offense taken and thanks for the analysis, Larry!
 
ForsythSnow said:
I will gladly pass on that solution. That would be disastrous for too many. That would also restart the Gulf coast hype train, which would send many into panic. The probably best case at the moment is either OTS or it shreds itself to death in the islands and curves up Florida as a weak depression avoiding water for the most part, but the odds are very low of that happening. OTS is more likely at the moment. And I can't imagine the threat of an inland tropical storm if a cat 4 or 5 makes landfall on the NE Gulf coast. Something of that strength with little to shred it would survive at least a day inland as it moved north at that strength, right?
Click to expand...

Yeah that's the last thing we want to see, while I don't think many of us want to see a hurricane in our backyards, you have to feel that this sentiment is astronomically more prevalent along the west-central Gulf coast after Harvey... The mid level circulation would largely remain in tact for several days even though the surface center would dissipate below hurricane intensity in no more than 12 hours or so, if that panned out, yet again we'd have to deal with a large-scale tornado threat in the southeastern US... Obviously still a long ways to go but there aren't many good options left unfortunately...
 
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