• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Webberweather53 said:
12z ATCF maintains Irma's intensity as a 100 knot category 3 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 969mb. Hurricane Hunters will begin sampling the storm at 5pm eastern today & continuously thereafter... Hurricane Watches may be hoisted before long in the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Click to expand...

We also should begin to anticipate intermediate, 3 hourly advisories to begin being issued here before long as Irma encroaches on the Lesser Antilles
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah we should be thankful that's not going to happen, in that case the sub 900mb GFS forecasts probably wouldn't have been outlandish...
Click to expand...
I'm still not entirely sure it won't get below the 900 mb threshold. There is plenty of evidence against it though as you have stated. I can easily say the GFS is wrong because of what you have stated, but the HMON is what keeps me uncertain. It is still sending it down below 890 mb and has for a few runs. My only thought would be it suffers from issues like the NAM and GFS do pressure wise.
 
SD said:
This is just not acceptable. Call me crazy but I'm going to be pricing generators today.
86d926a0a8d48ba756a4a90ba148a9f3.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Crazy! It's still 8 days out!
It's like you going to buy a sled because the Euro shows you getting 24"+!
On 2nd thought, get the generator! I have family in Roxboro, and I want them to stay safe!
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm still not entirely sure it won't get below the 900 mb threshold. There is plenty of evidence against it though as you have stated. I can easily say the GFS is wrong because of what you have stated, but the HMON is what keeps me uncertain. It is still sending it down below 890 mb and has for a few runs. My only thought would be it suffers from issues like the NAM and GFS do pressure wise.
Click to expand...

The HMON's current depiction of irma is likely very unrealistic, even at 3 hours out the pressure is already about 15 mb too low compared w/ the NHC advisories. What also makes a sub 900mb hurricane in the Bahamas harder to believe aside from the GFS' known biases with very strong tropical cyclones and lack of historical support, the tropopause height is a little lower in the Bahamas and southwestern Atlantic as compared with the northwestern Caribbean. This essentially means there's less room to evacuate mass in the troposphere w/ a lower tropopause. Even if the underlying oceanic heat content and sea surface temperatures and background environment were exactly the same in the Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, the NW Caribbean would still be capable of producing a stronger tropical cyclone because of this...

hmon_mslp_wind_11L_2.png
 
Storm5 said:
Better look at the eps
ab443746a0e0d6e4a72fb145a55f35dd.jpg
Click to expand...

The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward.

** Edit: Not too long after I posted this, I realized it had an important error that makes the analysis flat out wrong. I later posted about what I did wrong here:

http://southernwx.com/community/threads/major-hurricane-irma.227/page-49#post-41253
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward.
Click to expand...

At this point we can certainly hope for the sake of the US in the short term that this trends towards Hispaniola, unfortunately a hurricane of this magnitude would be a cataclysmic disaster there esp for Haiti & once Irma emerged from interaction from Hispaniola and/or Cuba in such a scenario it would assuredly be headed for the Gulf of Mexico :/
 
GaWx said:
The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward.
Click to expand...
Nice find Larry !

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward.
Click to expand...




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
RollTide18 said:
I guess you can say that 10% just went up a little
Click to expand...

Yeah, Accu, yourself, and the other at or not too far from Gulf coast folks had better not be complacent right now.

Meanwhile, I just read that Webber said she is well north of its forecast point from the 11 AM advisory. That's interesting and needs to be considered though it could just be due to a deceptive wobble as he implies. So, I'll probably reassess its position in relation to the 50 0Z EPS members within a couple of hours to see if it is then still to the south of all 50 members.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top