Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Webberweather53]

I don't like seeing the GFS and Euro both showing a NC landfall. I know the GFS can be horrible, but both of them showing it is very concerning.
What had the HWRF model been showing? I know it did well with Hermine, and a other model that starts with a H did, too.

The HWRF model only runs out 126 hours but it takes Irma near or just north of the Antilles and Puerto Rico as a category 4 or 5 hurricane and it suggests Irma may grow appreciably in size in about 48-72 hours as it enters an environment with warm SSTs, higher upper level moisture, and will continue to age through eye wall replacement cycles, with all of these factors acting to expand the storm. Fortunately this means it would have to expend some energy on becoming larger as opposed to intensifying for a time, but this also means impacts may be spread over a considerably larger area...

 

[Weatherlover92]

I just looked at all the models and.... oh man. Let's hope for a change for the better after those runs, or some may learn the horrors that many in Florida face. I don't like seeing a strong hurricane inland over Raleigh or near it per the Euro. Here is a totally different scenario per the NAVGEM. It would be worth watching it too, as it seemed to do well with Hermine last year I believe. Phil definitely will be against this model and I am too, but it's a plausible solution.

JMA was a FL hit also.

 

[Metwannabe]

Euro has the center of Irma directly over metwannabe at 234

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I saw, had the eye right over my house.... I'll take pictures. Seriously though I feel safe no way that works out, no model is that good 9 days out. However the GFS would be a disaster too, almost right over you and moving fast enough strong winds would be a major issue... Fran like as you mentioned, Hazel like as well.

 

[Webberweather53]

Irma's overall track definitely has a lot in common with the 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane thus far, even capturing the WSW-SW dip east of the Lesser Antilles as a near major hurricane...

 

[deltadog03]

Not to mention the Heat content goes us dramatically in the path of Irma. Web has been talking about this a lot lately.

 

[Metwannabe]

My gut tells me this isn't through adjusting SW, good for us NC folks but bad for many others..... I may be completely wrong but I don't see this heading ots just based off the trends of that trough. Stupid trough may pull Irma just far enough north to miss the shredder but won't stick around to protect us

 

[SD]

I saw, had the eye right over my house.... I'll take pictures. Seriously though I feel safe no way that works out, no model is that good 9 days out. However the GFS would be a disaster too, almost right over you and moving fast enough strong winds would be a major issue... Fran like as you mentioned, Hazel like as well.

This is just not acceptable. Call me crazy but I'm going to be pricing generators today.

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[Webberweather53]

Yikes...

 

[Metwannabe]

This is just not acceptable. Call me crazy but I'm going to be pricing generators today.

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Well my dad has a generator think I'll price chainsaws so I can cut my way to his house..... that's insane

 

[ForsythSnow]

This is just not acceptable. Call me crazy but I'm going to be pricing generators today.

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You know what they say about being in the bullseye... It wouldn't be bad to have a generator on hand since snowstorms and ice storms can knock power out too. It is insane that the GFS gave you hurricane force winds last run though.

 

[Storm5]

Still diving hard SW at the moment

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[Webberweather53]

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) and Oceanic Heat Content (OHC) is going to be increasing dramatically in Irma's path the next few days and will maximize over the Bahamas...

 

[deltadog03]

Still diving hard SW at the moment

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yes, it will be interesting to see how long it keeps that motion up.

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[ForsythSnow]

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) and Oceanic Heat Content (OHC) is going to be increasing dramatically in Irma's path the next few days and will maximize over the Bahamas...
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Let's be glad it isn't in the Caribbean. That would be terrifying if it hit that extreme heat area.

 

[Tarheel1]

Still diving hard SW at the moment

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I'm sure there's still an escape route out to sea somewhere! Some model is showing!?

 

[Webberweather53]

12z ATCF maintains Irma's intensity as a 100 knot category 3 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 969mb. Hurricane Hunters will begin sampling the storm at 5pm eastern today & continuously thereafter... Hurricane Watches may be hoisted before long in the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

 

[Storm5]

I'm sure there's still an escape route out to sea somewhere! Some model is showing!?

Yes there is

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[Webberweather53]

Let's be glad it isn't in the Caribbean. That would be terrifying if it hit that extreme heat area.

Yeah we should be thankful that's not going to happen, in that case the sub 900mb GFS forecasts probably wouldn't have been outlandish...

 

[Arcc]

Irma's overall track definitely has a lot in common with the 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane thus far, even capturing the WSW-SW dip east of the Lesser Antilles as a near major hurricane...
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View attachment 1048

That would fit with something I thought days ago with the continued second WSW motion at landfall as the Ridge flexes. Incredible analog.