Missed it. ULL eddy forming over AL, probable landfall north FL/GA.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
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Brent
Member
Florida is saved at 192 and I can see a path OTS if it wants it
Probably NC though
Probably NC though
I see a SC/NC Landfall maybe in agreement with GFS Ummm!!
Brent
Member
ridging over the Mid-Atlantic
Carolinas doom this run
Carolinas doom this run
Gonna be hard to get OTS. The Ridge will build in behind the trough and the ULL over the midwest will tug it.
Brent
Member
into Wilmington just like the GFS
12 hours behind the GFS
12 hours behind the GFS
Cary_Snow95
Member
At 216 looks to be ready for LF in SE NC. Pretty good agreement between the GFS and euro tonight..
Despite being slower, H5 is very close on both models.
Hmm only at 920mb, that wouldn't be too bad. Shane would get his rain.
Brent
Member
taken verbatim would be the strongest hurricane landfall ever that far north, never been above a Cat 3 north of the SC/NC border
Keeps moving NE after landfall. Personally it think it would have moved more NW.
Hazel was the closest I believe, Cat 4 at landfall but just south of the border by a few miles
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BHS1975
Member
How can that trough dissipate so fast and wouldn't it leave some dry air behind to get entrained?
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Storm5
Member
00z eps with another SW shift. Still plenty that miss and turn offshore but no doubt a SW shift as a whole
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6Z GFS is practically identical with regards to land fall as the 0Z. Has a 900MB cane making landfall near the Wilmington area.
Irma is diving SW currently, already below the Lat of PR and still trucking. I bet we have another south and west shift at 12z.
Looks like the 6z GEFS slide south again as well.
Looks like the 6z GEFS slide south again as well.
Storm5
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The trough leaves early because it's positively tilted & thus gets sheared out more quickly because its depositing momentum into the mid latitude jet at its own expense...
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