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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Storm5 said:
It's one run showing something 8-10 days out . SD knows better than to freak out

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Well it's virtually right on top of its ensemble mean that's been spitting out a similar solution the last 3-4 runs, it's shifting southwest in the short range, and the European has also started to throw more members towards the SE US vs 0z last night. Yeah obviously even then it doesnt mean much until we can at least get the recon and G-IV data ingested into the models, but we are not trending in the right direction here as Sanvu is much slower to move into the extratropical North Pacific and is considerably weaker than forecast. This will have major implications here because it means the storm has a longer time to deposit momentum into the Pacific jet and amplify more rossby waves downstream over North America, while the waves that are emitted downstream and attempt to interfere with the background state are also weaker hence the southwest trends in NWP of late...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well it's virtually right on top of its ensemble mean that's been spitting out a similar solution the last 3-4 runs, it's shifting southwest in the short range, and the European has also started to throw more members towards the SE US vs 0z last night. Yeah obviously even then it doesnt mean much until we can at least get the recon and G-IV data ingested into the models, but we are not trending in the right direction here as Sanvu is much slower to move into the extratropical North Pacific and is considerably weaker than forecast. This will have major implications here because it means the storm has a longer time to deposit momentum into the Pacific jet and amplify more rossby waves downstream over North America, while the waves that are emitted downstream and attempt to interfere with the background state are also weaker hence the southwest trends in NWP of late...
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I'm just saying it's still a long ways out amd there isnt any reason to overreact to one OP run. The SW shifts are not good no doubt and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see them continue . The OPs keep shifting and the ensembles keep shifting as you pointed out. But we have a long way to go still

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Been in the cross hairs of the GFS before with Jonaquin and you know how that turned out.


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Webberweather53 said:
Well it's virtually right on top of its ensemble mean that's been spitting out a similar solution the last 3-4 runs, it's shifting southwest in the short range, and the European has also started to throw more members towards the SE US vs 0z last night. Yeah obviously even then it doesnt mean much until we can at least get the recon and G-IV data ingested into the models, but we are not trending in the right direction here as Sanvu is much slower to move into the extratropical North Pacific and is considerably weaker than forecast. This will have major implications here because it means the storm has a longer time to deposit momentum into the Pacific jet and amplify more rossby waves downstream over North America, while the waves that are emitted downstream and attempt to interfere with the background state are also weaker hence the southwest trends in NWP of late...
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You know every time you mention Sanvu, I misread it Snafu in my head, which is what this situation is.
 
Storm5 said:
I'm just saying it's still a long ways out amd there isnt any reason to overreact to one OP run. The SW shifts are not good no doubt and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see them continue . The OPs keep shifting and the ensembles keep shifting as you pointed out. But we have a long way to go still

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Yeah we do, but I'm saying this one operational run in particular shouldn't be a surprise or labeled "as just one model run" given where the GFS ensembles have been for the last 24 hours...
 
BHS1975 said:
Been in the cross hairs of the GFS before with Jonaquin and you know how that turned out.


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This is nothing like Joaquin, the climatological background, steering flow, intensity/track of the storm, etc are much different this time... Obviously an OTS route is very much in play but if Sanvu continues to defy model guidance and remain weaker and slower than forecast, the door out to sea to the northeast will slam shut..
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah we do, but I'm saying this one operational run in particular shouldn't be a surprise or labeled "as just one model run" given where the GFS ensembles have been for the last 24 hours...
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But the truth is it's just one run and yes it fits in the spread of the GEFS which is massive from Florida to the mid atlantic. So no it's no surprise for sure . I'm sure we will OP runs with direct hits to Florida and SC as well. CMC already did that

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Lol
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Storm5 said:
But the truth is it's just one run and yes it fits in the spread of the GEFS which is massive from Florida to the mid atlantic. So no it's no surprise for sure . I'm sure we will OP runs with direct hits to Florida and SC as well. CMC already did that

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You're missing the point... It's not just one random, fluke run when it's well within the spread of the ensemble guidance's last several runs and other suites... Obviously the exact timing, location, and intensity of landfall don't matter now and will change but the general idea of a threat to the SE US has clearly been there for quite a while and may fester if current trends in NWP continue
 
Webberweather53 said:
You're missing the point... It's not just one random, fluke run when it's well within the spread of the ensemble guidance's last several runs... Obviously the exact timing, location, and intensity of landfall don't matter now and will change but the general idea of a threat to the SE US has clearly been there for quite a while.
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I clearly agreed to that above in my statement when i said it's well within the spread and that it's no surprise

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I've been noticing the CMC has been the first to hone in. CMC was the most accurate for the second landfall and inland movement of Harvey over MS for example, the other models like GFS and ECMWF took much longer to realize that.
 
weatherguy said:
I've been noticing the CMC has been the first to hone in. CMC was the most accurate for the second landfall and inland movement of Harvey over MS for example, the other models like GFS and ECMWF took much longer to realize that.
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I still find it hard to put any faith in the CMC during hurricane and season . But it does seem to be improved a little. Would love to see the verification scores

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It is so powerful and has so much momentum on the GFS , the center does not stop until it gets to Chicago. I don't think I've ever seen one landfall on east coast and go inland to the west that far.
 
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