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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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The 12Z GEFS mean is the furthest west yet of at least the last 4 runs and is in the far E GOM just W of S FL implying the Gulf threat is far from gone.
 
Is the northern turn at this point dependent on a shortwave in the southeast and no longer on a weakness in the ridiging over the Atlantic?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Is it possible for Jose to have any impact on the ultimate direction Irma goes ?
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No, I doubt that since it will be down stream from Irma. Also, that wave and Irma won't get close to each other to the point of where they won't interact with each other. I could be wrong about that. I try my best to answer questions to the simplest form.

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WeatherWatch said:
No, I doubt that since it will be down stream from Irma. Also, that wave and Irma won't get close to each other to the point of where they won't interact with each other. I could be wrong about that. I try my best to answer questions to the simplest form.

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I was wondering that maybe if the wave that may become Jose developed into a strong hurricane if that would have an impact.
 
I see 18z HMON got rid of the smashing Irma into Central Cuba idea. It's more closer in line to the GFS so far. (only out to hr 93 right now)
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I was wondering that maybe if the wave that may become Jose developed into a strong hurricane if that would have an impact.
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I could be wrong, but I would think Irma and potential "Jose" would keep enough distance from eachother to have any direct or immediate effect on one another.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Oh wow the 18Z gefs is west. Many members in the gulf that go straight into Ga
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Not necessarily any more west the 12z it is a tighter cluster up the west coast of Fl but it also has a couple more that stay off east coast and head up into NC, mean probably just west of the spine of Fl
gefs_cyclone_atlantic_29.png


12z gefs
AL11_2017090412_GEFS_large.png
 
Webber would have to give us more technical answers. Me, you'll mostly hear my answers simple and understanding.

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Sorry for beating the same drum (Rolling Thunder for you music folks) ... but, until we get 36 to 48 closer, it's still pin the tail on the donkey (though the donkey's behind is getting a little more in focus, even with the blindfold covering most of the vision)
 
The maps for the 18Z GEFS show just over half of the members in the E GOM, which by my count is higher than at least the other 3 runs of today. Is this a sign of things to come? With the projected track to near the northern coast of central Cuba moving WNW, it would be a rather common track to then go into the Gulf in early to mid Sep.
 
GaWx said:
The maps for the 18Z GEFS show just over half of the members in the E GOM, which by my count is higher than at least the other 3 runs of today. Is this a sign of things to come? With the projected track to near the northern coast of central Cuba moving WNW, it would be a rather common track to then go into the Gulf in early to mid Sep.
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N Tampa/Cedar Key has been my thought and finally I'm willing to say so ...

but that is just a thought, serious one I've been holding on to for days, though ...

RETRACT - just tossing this out there to say how silly it is to forecast a 'Cane's landfall this far out ...

I'll be quiet now ...
 
DustinWX said:
What kind of wind would that produce on the surface verbatim?
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I have no idea, but I would say that if it hit where a majority of the members want to this run, it would be around 40 to 50 sustained up here. Basing my idea of what it could be up here by Opal's impacts. For Florida, probably much worse. The panhandle would have a cat 4 :(
 
It does seem while in general it's a trend west, the members split a little more between west and east. A west trend in general but also a trend to have more members off the coast heading due north. There's about 4 or 5 very cluster members off the eastern coast of Florida
12z GEFS
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_25.png

18z GEFS
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_24.png
 
pcbjr said:
Sorry for beating the same drum (Rolling Thunder for you music folks) ... but, until we get 36 to 48 closer, it's still pin the tail on the donkey (though the donkey's behind is getting a little more in focus, even with the blindfold covering most of the vision)
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Pretty large model consensus today, IMO ! They could all be different tomorrow, but being that this beast will be off to the SE of FL in 5 days or so, I don't think there will be huge run to run changes in the coming days, but I've been wrong before!
 
pcbjr said:
Sorry for beating the same drum (Rolling Thunder for you music folks) ... but, until we get 36 to 48 closer, it's still pin the tail on the donkey (though the donkey's behind is getting a little more in focus, even with the blindfold covering most of the vision)
Click to expand...

You're right, 36-48 could change a lot of things, but ya gotta admit, it ain't looking good for the home team!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Pretty large model consensus today, IMO ! They could all be different tomorrow, but being that this beast will be off to the SE of FL in 5 days or so, I don't think there will be huge run to run changes in the coming days, but I've been wrong before!
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Hey we thought that back in January too, and then it shifted 100 miles NW in 12 hours :confused:
 
18z GFS ENS spaghetti plot. Most members are going through extreme eastern GOM.
8fcdf76a9045481fcf2729eea3c79b99.jpg


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