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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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I could see this going either way to be honest. I still favor a more eastern track, ie the Carolinas at this point for sure, however I could see how a western track could still happen. The reason I could see a track west is because this isn't going to be some gigantic trof that is coming in to sweep her out. She will def feel the weakness/break in ridge, but how far west can she get before that happens. That is the question IMHO.
 
Webberweather53 said:
May be a trochoidal wobble, but yes the last 3 center fixes from recon have been due west.
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Interested to see if southward movement has stopped completely now...
Last night official track southern most point was 16.8, that was the last fix...this morning official track 16.6 so if it's headed due west now it may be on the north side of their track just a hair but could have huge implications. Starting to think it does in fact miss Haiti to the north

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Storm5 said:
I'm with Shane on this one. I bet we start seeing a correction to the NE. I bet the ridge is being overplayed in regards to strength

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It's a hard one, could the GFS be over playing the ridge or the Euro over playing the trough. It's the trough though that is really the kicker, how much does it dig and damper the ridge and how fast does it pull out.
 
metwannabe said:
Interested to see if southward movement has stopped completely now...
Last night official track southern most point was 16.8, that was the last fix...this morning official track 16.6 so if it's headed due west now it may be on the north side of their track just a hair but could have huge implications. Starting to think it does in fact miss Haiti to the north

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me too! I think we should see that generally stop today, and more of a westerly movement.
 
deltadog03 said:
I could see this going either way to be honest. I still favor a more eastern track, ie the Carolinas at this point for sure, however I could see how a western track could still happen. The reason I could see a track west is because this isn't going to be some gigantic trof that is coming in to sweep her out. She will def feel the weakness/break in ridge, but how far west can she get before that happens. That is the question IMHO.
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Exactly. Even a small shift in track from 100 miles or so north of Hispaniola to directly over it could lead to a shift in track of several hundred miles down the road, there's a lot of non linearity here... Not only would localized frictional convergence, and disruption of low level inflow jostle the circulation around, but it would also weaken it in the process and then questions would begin to arise if the storm would actually be strong enough in the first place after land interaction to feel the weakness and turn to the north or instead keep moving west-northwest into the east-central Gulf. We still have a lot of questions left unanswered...
 
Radar from HH aircraft confirms the observations of double wind maxima as they passed through Irma. An eyewall replacement cycle is underway and thus Irma's intensification may be temporarily halted until this new, larger eye becomes dominant and begins to contract...
DI4W5b9UQAEcD34.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Exactly. Even a small shift in track from 100 miles or so north of Hispaniola to directly over it could lead to a shift in track of several hundred miles down the road, there's a lot of non linearity here... Not only would localized frictional convergence, and disruption of low level inflow jostle the circulation around, but it would also weaken it in the process and then questions would begin to arise if the storm would actually be strong enough in the first place after land interaction to feel the weakness and turn to the north or instead keep moving west-northwest into the east-central Gulf. We still have a lot of questions left unanswered...
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Yeah, if this thing hits Hispaniola, all bets are off regarding track. It would surprise me to see it bounce around to the south if it approaches it.
 
I just have a hard time seeing this getting into the eastern gulf unless the above that Webber mentioned happens . I still favor just up the east coast of Florida

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last frame SW wobble.
 
Irma is intensifying in spite of an EWRC atm, which is pretty impressive in its own right. Of course, Harvey also exhibited similar behavior before hitting Texas and intensified during an EWRC, once the EWRC was complete it underwent rapid intensification w/ several attendant mesovortices becoming prevalent. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we see Irma exhibit similar behavior over the next 24-36 hours & underwent rapid intensification after this eyewall replacement cycle is finished...
 
Brick Tamland said:
The shifts have been crazy. First from the Gulf to SC/NC to the Northeast back to SC/NC and now to Florida and maybe the Gulf.
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Typical model behavior, the firest runs were flukes, followed by the deep trough runs and then the runs where the trough correcting less amplified otherwise known as "the north trend". Same thing happens in winter, which leads to heartache.
 
One thing's for sure: we'll have more data for these forecasts today. Probably means we'll see something totally unique and different. :p
 
ForsythSnow said:
Maybe it's the JHS rain shield. I believe it has grown to cover parts of SC and GA now, as well as parts of NC. :p
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Well, looking at the latest Goofy this one wants to come right over here. Last time that happened it trashed the RaceWay. I'm wondering now, if being in the bulls eye for a hurricane is like being in the foot of snow and sleet bullseye in winter. If so this storm will miss me by hundreds of miles, lol.....and no rain :) T
 
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin
Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St.
Martin and Saint Barthelemy. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
Guadeloupe.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
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GeorgiaGirl said:
Well, if there is a JHS rain shield that is expanding, it hasn't expanded to me lul. It hasn't rained as much lately but I might have had enough rain for the whole year over this summer.
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I had tons of rain right up until it suddenly stopped...like last year, only this year didn't last 72 days without a drop, and this mini drought ended with Harvey's last gasp 1.75 the other day. I'm amazed it can rain and rain then cut off like suddenly like a faucet shut off, then after a month or 3 it's back on again. If Irma comes up thru here I'll go from crunch to squish overnight, lol. T
 
Allan Huffman has posted that the UKMET has been on the most southern end of guidance the whole time.

 
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