That guys a pimp!! Is he still on TWC too!?
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
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Mack,
What are you babbling about? I thought WM was one of the best OCMs ever at TWC.
Storm5
Member
Gonna be lots of offshore members this run of the eps
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Storm5
Member
Man look at all the sub 940 members
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Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
About 1/3 of the eps members hit and the rest either just offshore or ots
Pimp is good ! I liked him! I know he was great!
Gonna be lots of offshore members this run of the eps
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Well we know which one got ahold of the meth.
We've seen the models in winter hold stead fast onto wrong solutions! Lot to work out!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The spread increased considerably this run, similar to the operational, more heavy clustering was evident through about day 5 further to the SW...
WeatherWatch
Member
I heard that Irma is 1,000 miles in diameter. Even if Irma ends up off shore, the coastal area's will still receive Irma's impacts. That's only if it holds it's wide diameter and if it's just offshore like what we're seeing.
Edit: Irma's influence is 1,000 miles in diameter.
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Edit: Irma's influence is 1,000 miles in diameter.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's not going to be a 1,000 miles in diameter and maintain tropical characteristics...
Storm5
Member
Yeah the 00z run was tightly clustered through day 5 . As you said much more spread this run
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Brent
Member
Euro ensembles all over the place still lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The anticyclonic wave break over southern Canada looks more impressive this run and the door to the NE closes up a bit vs the last run, but until we get inside day 5-6 the mid latitude longwave pattern is going to be very complex...
I had been thinking of raising the chance in my mind at a US landfall from 25%, but the 12Z Euro/EPS are telling me to hold on for now.
Another thing to keep in mind is the recent bias of too strong of an eastern ridge and the opposite in the west for the GEFS...perhaps this means higher chance for recurve than what GEFS has been showing??
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/fcst_eval/html/zwk2_bias.html
Another thing to keep in mind is the recent bias of too strong of an eastern ridge and the opposite in the west for the GEFS...perhaps this means higher chance for recurve than what GEFS has been showing??
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/fcst_eval/html/zwk2_bias.html
OK, my bad.
WeatherWatch
Member
I edited it, Irma's influence is 1000 miles in diameter.
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Oh hell that for sure is OTS if right.You can tell early on that it's gonna stay offshore with this look
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WeatherWatch
Member
The influence between the ridge and the trough would eventually change the heading. If there wasn't going to be a trough and just the ridge building west, Irma would have a better chance at coming further on shore of the EC or even the GOM.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn't even say that either... It's influential but exactly to what degree in how you quantify that you didn't specify and you need to realize there are a lot of two way interactions that reverberate throughout the synoptic and planetary scale (for example Sanvu in the western Pacific influencing weather halfway around the globe in just a few days through Rossby wave dispersion) so limiting its influence to 1000 miles is very restrictive
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