Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[WeatherWatch]

Irma is going to be wide in diameter. So, if Irma is going to hug the coasts, inland of the coastal states will still receive effects from Irma. The spaghetti plots do not represent the size of Irma. Just because the members are mostly over water, does not mean that the coastal area's and inland will not see effects from Irma.

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[Storm5]

I made that comment before the run completed but whatever

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[Webberweather53]

Ummm, 186 (215 mph) knot winds at 850mb on the HWRF? Holy crap. Btw, the model shifted nearly a degree south & west this run, really close to the northern Antilles...

 

[SD]

I made that comment before the run completed but whatever

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Dancingsaltshaker.gif

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[ForsythSnow]

Ummm, 186 (215 mph) knot winds at 850mb on the HWRF? Holy crap. Btw, the model shifted nearly a degree south & west this run, really close to the northern Antilles...
View attachment 1025

Woah. Wouldn't they be flying around in the storm at that range? If that verifies, there will be some insane flight level winds.

 

[WeatherWatch]

12z GFS ENS spaghetti plot

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[Webberweather53]

Woah. Wouldn't they be flying around in the storm at that range? If that verifies, there will be some insane flight level winds.

Yeah we'll be getting recon data from Irma by 21z tomorrow and subsequently thereafter, and a NOAA G-IV aircraft will be sampling the upper level environment around Irma on Monday. The infusion of this data should improve the initialization & forecasts of the NWP models...

 

[Metwannabe]

Ummm, 186 (215 mph) knot winds at 850mb on the HWRF? Holy crap. Btw, the model shifted nearly a degree south & west this run, really close to the northern Antilles...
View attachment 1025

That's just a freakin monster.... and the Euro is heading towards the Islands, they may need watches sometime tomorrow if this keeps up
Still going to pass just to the north of the Islands but still close call for them

 

[accu35]

Euro south

 

[Brent]

Euro south again, Northern Leewards take a direct hit for the first time

 

[Metwannabe]

Whoa definitely south this run, northern Islands taking a hit this run

 

[accu35]

Seems like the trough will pull out quicker this euro run compare to the gfs.

 

[accu35]

Much more south vrs oz

 

[Brent]

gonna be another doom run

How far SW can it go??? We've yet to have a run actually hit FL

 

[Brent]

Pretty similar to the 0z at 144

 

[weatherguy]

The trough dug a little deeper this run so it crossed over the 00z run track to the north slightly.

 

[stormcentral]

Things keep getting more interesting. Tis the season they say. Concern mounting.

 

[deltadog03]

So since it’s more south in the early to mid run, then same north at end of run. Do we al have to pray that this trof can capture it?

 

[Brent]

Euro looks a little east at 168

 

[Storm5]

It's got a huge open door to turn North even ne if it wants it

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