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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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The trough gets hung up more so it looks like this will be a strong recurve, fish or not.
 
its moving almost due north at 192, I think it may go up the coast

this is definitely gonna be closer to recurve though
 
I don't have the good maps but my guess is this is the solution that was talked about earlier as a possibility...no landfall but heads up the EC.

Edit: yup, believe this is the possibility talked about.
 
This is not an analogy, but rather is to humbly point out that an OTS/off-shore modeling does not always work that way - Remember Matthew as recently as last year? Wholly different set up then, but he defied early way off-shore forecasts ... so the Irma pbp is interesting to say the least, but it is not a crystal ball ... there's a lot left to happen before any of us have a real clue ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_5W.shtml
 
pcbjr said:
This is not an analogy, but rather is to humbly point out that an OTS/off-shore modeling does not always work that way - Remember Matthew as recently as last year? Wholly different set up then, but he defied early way off-shore forecasts ... so the Irma pbp is interesting to say the least, but it is not a crystal ball ... there's a lot left to happen before any of us have a real clue ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_5W.shtml
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Let's not forget about Sandy too. That thing was supposed to go OTS but slammed the NE. Also, I'm going to have to say it is too soon to tell where it is going beyond 2 days, or until planes start collecting data. Each run of all the models seem to be changing the 500 mb setup each run, as well as the overall storm speed. You just can't have an idea with Irma for some reason.
 
You can tell early on that it's gonna stay offshore with this look
03b43ff2bbd33634b0375e27ff951cc7.jpg


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Yep just another run and another solution.... EPS will probably be south or way out to sea, who knows haha. Interesting that it was more west early but then ots, that trough and the atlantic ridge. Can't help but think about Webb's comments about sanvu and how it was looking like it would have less effect > more ridging. Anyway it's all speculative at this point
 
Here is the flight information that Webber was talking about
bf4f564e3cd80ef4ae5f5b6ebe0cc935.jpg


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By the way we are having Warren Madden on the live show soon . He coordinates the hurricane hunters flight plans and schedules . That will be an interesting show for sure

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Looking at the gefs if you look at the last 5 runs it's like throwing darts . Big shifts in all directions . You know its gonna be a long week when the ensemblesare having big shifts

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Storm5 said:
You can tell early on that it's gonna stay offshore with this look
03b43ff2bbd33634b0375e27ff951cc7.jpg


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Click to expand...
If that trough isn't there or the upper low is not there, it's a whole different ball game
 
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