Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[GaWx]

Levi's latest:

 

[WeatherWatch]

I wouldn't even say that either... It's influential but exactly to what degree in how you quantify that you didn't specify and you need to realize there are a lot of two way interactions that reverberate throughout the synoptic and planetary scale (for example Sanvu in the western Pacific influencing weather halfway around the globe in just a few days through Rossby wave dispersion) so limiting its influence to 1000 miles is very restrictive

I understand that typhoon Sanvu is influencing the pattern. What I'm saying is Irma, as whole, is influencing within 1000 miles. Not 1000 miles within the pattern.

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[Metwannabe]

Map via Allan Huffman all major 12z models and ens. Lean towards offshore and strangely gom getting some love too....just a little spread

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[Metwannabe]

I hate to suggest it but take middle of the road....

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[Storm5]

Map via Allan Huffman all major 12z models and ens. Lean towards offshore and strangely gom getting some love too....just a little spread

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That's my ten percent lol

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[pcbjr]

I hate to suggest it but take middle of the road....

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For Larry's sake, No ...

 

[Arcc]

Can we have a site based run of the GFDL from ten or so years ago?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Looks like the GFS initialized close to the current strength for once. Also it is a bit stronger at 36.

 

[Arcc]

Looks like the GFS initialized close to the current strength for once. Also it is a bit stronger at 36.

It's about time for the 18z GFS to throw us something crazy. I'm thinking it will show a island shredder into GOM before hard right into Tampa as a TS.

 

[accu35]

Lol, Irma is gonna more south towards the island

 

[Brick Tamland]

Map via Allan Huffman all major 12z models and ens. Lean towards offshore and strangely gom getting some love too....just a little spread

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Seems the spread is getting worse instead of better. I thought the models did better with tropical systems than winter storm systems aroind here.

 

[Storm5]

What was the storm that Spann said last year wouldn't make the gulf

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[Brent]

What was the storm that Spann said last year wouldn't make the gulf

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Hermine?

 

[Meteorologist1999]

18z GFS OTS it is!!!

 

[ForsythSnow]

18z GFS OTS it is!!!

Waaaaay to premature. It hasn't even done much yet. Still close to 12Z.

 

[Metwannabe]

We're all guilty to some degree about making statements of how a model run will end prior to it's ending, some speculation I think is fine again we all do it to some degree but I think we need to start curbing the statements with such finality and honestly reducing those comments altogether.... just my opinion.

 

[Metwannabe]

Waaaaay to premature. It hasn't even done much yet. Still close to 12Z.

Yep in fact just like that @126 the ridge is flexing and Irma just took a jog west....

 

[Metwannabe]

The anticyclonic wave break over southern Canada looks more impressive this run and the door to the NE closes up a bit vs the last run, but until we get inside day 5-6 the mid latitude longwave pattern is going to be very complex...

Regardless of how this run ends read Eric's comments here and take a moment to watch Levi Cowan's video upper level pattern complex to say the least..... anything possible after 5 days.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yep in fact just like that @126 the ridge is flexing and Irma just took a jog west....

Looking at 500mb, it looks like it could be a bit west. The trough is weaker at the moment and smaller. Regardless, I think it could head toward the US.

 

[Brent]

889 mb on the 156 hour GFS

Don't see any real sign it'd be OTS, probably Mid-Atlantic again