ForsythSnow
Moderator
Shortwave faster it looks like. Should pick up Irma in N Florida this run, then take it right through South GA and into N Alabama, but that is just a thought. Maybe it will ride up Florida again.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
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Brent
Member
goodbye Miami at 150 hours
SimeonNC
Member
889 at 150
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Shortwave is grabbing onto Irma at 150. Watch out, this may get weird.
whatalife
Moderator
Poor Phil. 
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Jesse
Member
It's going to be like Ike, man. We're all going to be shocked in about 5 days. (I am not a Meteorologist and I am VERY often wrong).
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks to be riding the Florida coast like Matthew at 162. Waiting for the westward tug.
Brent
Member
looks like the west shifts have come to a halt at least for now
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like it gets captured... Hopefully it doesnt pinwheel back into the Carolinas again on this run
pcbjr
Member
Still a long way to go and a lot of data to get ingested into models yet (as Webb has so succinctly pointed out).Poor Phil.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's coming from Levi too. That makes it even more scary. I can see where he is coming from about the shortwave. If that goes poof, we will see a Gulf storm, no doubt. However, if it is a monster it should pull north... into Florida or Louisiana before it can make it to Texas due to pure intensity .
Brent
Member
headed for GA/SC
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Hits Savannah at 180.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Another hard run to watch knowing the devastation that would come from it...
pcbjr
Member
Hey Shetley,
Still hoping for some tropical rainfall?
Still hoping for some tropical rainfall?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
So, looks like it's back to the Carolinas for the GFS, CMC should end close.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Irma broke tropical tidbits.
Edit: It's back but it did have a bad gateway for me.
Edit: It's back but it did have a bad gateway for me.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
CMC hits South Florida, then Outer Banks, then the Mid Atlantic.
Cary_Snow95
Member
CMC seems to underdone pressure wise to me
Xtreme Weather
Member
CMC wants to rip whole E coast a new one
ForsythSnow
Moderator
If the HMON and HWRF are right, we are looking at a strong cat 4 later today.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The low pressure on initialization is waaaaayyyyy off on the CMC.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Also, off a bit, but when are we resuming the live thread updates? It's already quite active and it's going to be more so the next few hours.
Stormlover
Member
Yeah, that was nice last night.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Recon is back in the storm, so let's see what is going on again. Estimates show Irma has strengthened much more despite an ERC, but I don't think it has too much.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cloud tops have begun to cool considerably again in the southeastern quadrant...
Good grief at GFS. FL, GA, SC-NC 
Well, remember for us inland folks that the pressure gradient will be higher than normal with a cane like her because of a building high in NE
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Oh my. I correct myself. I think we are about to see some crazy recon data.Cloud tops have begun to cool considerably again in the southeastern quadrant...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
HWRF is noticeably further north this run...
RollTide18
Member
Did the GFS stop it's west trend?
Brent
Member
I think the folks in Houston are breathing a sigh of relief.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Too early to be declaring anything. If the shortwave goes bye bye, an Ike like track is VERY much on the table.
SimeonNC
Member
Cloud tops have begun to cool considerably again in the southeastern quadrant...
Is that a sign of strengthening?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm not sure if it's the ERC or not, but the eye is contracting.
Can’t say for sure if west or east trends are done. If she keeps trucking west the more FL or eastern GoM in play before it mives north
Claycochaser
Member
Has anyone had a look at the latest NHC track? Takes it into Cuba...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We'll see for sure what recon says here in the next 20 minutes or so but it's likely a harbinger of considerable intensification to come once Irma completes its eyewall replacement cycle.
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