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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Offshore
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Storm5 said:
Yep stays offshore no landfall this run

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There's absolutely no room for error whatsoever in this forecast from the Euro (taken verbatim), even the most subtle shift in intensity & track of Irma and the placement, timing, and intensity of the S/Ws propagating by to tis north and Irma means the difference between a major hurricane landfall on the SE US or a TC that harmlessly scoots out to sea.

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Webberweather53 said:
There's absolutely no room for error whatsoever in this forecast from the Euro (taken verbatim), even the most subtle shift in intensity & track of Irma and the placement, timing, and intensity of the S/Ws propagating by to tis north and Irma means the difference between a major hurricane landfall on the SE US or a TC that harmlessly scoots out to sea.

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Also if it interacts with PR and weakens some it opens the door for a further west track as well as you pointed out

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Webberweather53 said:
There's absolutely no room for error whatsoever in this forecast from the Euro (taken verbatim), even the most subtle shift in intensity & track of Irma and the placement, timing, and intensity of the S/Ws propagating by to tis north and Irma means the difference between a major hurricane landfall on the SE US or a TC that harmlessly scoots out to sea.

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Webb - So well said. The only "issue" I have is that this is a model run and not a "forecast". There remains so much to happen and data not yet available before anyone forecasts ... (not implying you suggest a forecast, but some folks seem to think God wrote the Euro and it is part of the Bible) ... :confused:
 
Storm5 said:
Also if it interacts with PR and weakens some it opens the door for a further west track as well

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Puerto Rico probably wouldn't harm the circulation too much and it usually doesn't have a terribly significant impact on TC intensity especially for large TCs, but Hispaniola most certainly would. If the Euro forecast was even 100 miles further southwest and ran into Hispaniola that run, this would have ended up in the central Gulf of Mexico instead of offshore the SE US... There's usually a lot of non linearity wrt interaction w/ the Greater Antilles
 
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Webberweather53 said:
There's absolutely no room for error whatsoever in this forecast from the Euro (taken verbatim), even the most subtle shift in intensity & track of Irma and the placement, timing, and intensity of the S/Ws propagating by to tis north and Irma means the difference between a major hurricane landfall on the SE US or a TC that harmlessly scoots out to sea.

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Definitely no room for error if taken verbatim, However, I think that over the past several runs, the Euro is dead clueless about the H5 setup in the mid to long range. It keeps flipping to every solution possible and doesn't settle on one. It is becoming a bit annoying actually that it can't find a certain setup. I expect the next run to be a totally different one at this point.
 
pcbjr said:
Webb - So well said. The only "issue" I have is that this is a model run and not a "forecast". There remains so much to happen and data not yet available before anyone forecasts ... (not implying you suggest a forecast, but some folks seem to think God wrote the Euro and it is part of the Bible) ... :confused:
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I'm only trying to explain what's going on in "x" scenario and provide a broader physical interpretation and get others (esp new bloggers who may not be as familiar w/ meteorology and may take these model runs as forecasts) to recognize the vastness of the amount of uncertainty at hand here as opposed to regurgitating a model and not digging any deeper into the physicality behind it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm only trying to explain what's going on in "x" scenario and provide a broader physical interpretation and get others (esp new bloggers who may not be as familiar w/ meteorology and may take these model runs as forecasts) to recognize the vastness of the amount of uncertainty at hand here as opposed to regurgitating a model and not digging any deeper into the physicality behind it.
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I know - I was not being critical at all; it was actually 180º the other way ... :D
Just wanted to make sure that "forecast" and "model run" were not confused by some ...
There is a tendency for that. :(
Pardon me if it came off otherwise ... :cool:
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Not very often we have to wonder is the Euro an outlier LoL
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It'll be interesting to see what the eps has. To me it would be just as beneficial to have a recon mission in the Pacific to gather good data about sanvu and it's downstream impacts. That pacific jet extension, dampening of the western ridge, and shearing of the eastern trough is so key

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ForsythSnow said:
He had mentioned it seemed to be a wobble. Looking at the current loop, it is headed back WSW again.
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Saying that a northward track right now means ots later is foolish. Nothing about the fate of Irma is that tied to today

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pcbjr said:
I know - I was not being critical at all; it was actually 180º the other way ... :D
Just wanted to make sure that "forecast" and "model run" were not confused by some ...
There is a tendency for that. :(
Pardon me if it came off otherwise ... :cool:
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Oh yeah no problem I totally understand, this is a much different setting to what we're often accustomed to during the slow times...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah. Nothing is ruled out at the moment. I was just stating the current direction Irma was moving in.
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No worries. I just personally don't see when a farther north path today having a big impact on the future. The pattern is pretty solid that it's going to get into the bahamas the issues occur after that

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Similar to the 12Z Euro op vs 0Z Euro
op, the 12z EPS mean is ~100 miles WSW of the 0Z EPS mean at hour 156.​
 
ForsythSnow said:
Try -100000000000000 sense. It's almost like some want to experience power outages, devastating winds, and tons of tornadoes. Nobody wants that.
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Or no internet (and no Southern WX for a week); no hot shower for a week; no roof for 2 months, no pay with no work for 3 weeks, no decent food for two weeks ... and the beat goes on ...
 
12Z EPS mean hour 180 Vero Beach, which is about 100 miles west of the 0Z EPS hour 192 mean.
 
SimeonNC said:
Is the low in SE Canada there? If so then we might see the EPS follow the Euro which would be good for us.
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I don't have access to the good maps, but if I was to give an educated guess, I would say no due to the statement by Larry and that the last 3 EPS runs have decreased the existence of a low and have been bridging the highs over the trough. But then again, I probably have no idea since I can't see the maps yet.
 
SimeonNC said:
Is the low in SE Canada there? If so then we might see the EPS follow the Euro which would be good for us.
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It is there in only very weak form in the mean. Therefore, the mean 12Z EPS is bringing Irma smack dab right up the spine of the FL peninsula, which is 200+ miles west of the 0Z EPS.
 
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