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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Wonderful. Weather Channel throwing Hugo's track out there in their "whatever analysis" thing. Hype train still incoming! I've noticed on my personal social media, everyone is already saying SC is getting a Category 5 storm soon etc... wrong maps, bad model runs, even fake maps.

Some moron faked a NHC map, used a tropical storm icon, hand labeled it Cat 5 all the way into Texas... you can't make this up.
 
I estimate that about 75% of the 12Z EPS tracks are to the east of the operational and ~25% to the west.
 
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Past 6 runs via GFS, including the 18z run from today, you can see the shift towards the WSW.

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OMG, this hits NYC dead on, which could be a huge disaster.
 
metwannabe said:
Another GFS run another solution, about 40+ to go but yeah that would be a disastrous hit

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Watching the 18Z run reminded me of TWC "It Could Happen Tomorrow" series...I know one of the scenarios was what if a Cat 4 hurricane hit NYC...but like you said another run, another different solution.
sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png
 
StoneMtnWx said:
Watching the 18Z run reminded me of TWC "It Could Happen Tomorrow" series...I know one of the scenarios was what if a Cat 4 hurricane hit NYC...but like you said another run, another different solution.
sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png
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If you know what Sandy did, which caused 75 billion in damage, I can't imagine what a 3 or 4 could do. It would cause likely another 100 billion plus disaster if the scenario played out. Fortunately, it's a ways out, so let's hope we don't get that.
 
StoneMtnWx said:
Watching the 18Z run reminded me of TWC "It Could Happen Tomorrow" series...I know one of the scenarios was what if a Cat 4 hurricane hit NYC...but like you said another run, another different solution.
Click to expand...

I thought about the exact same thing when I was watching this run. Pretty scary doomsday scenario for sure on this run. Hopefully just one run and not an evolving consensus over the next coming days. NYC will be very ill prepared for a major hurricane of this magnitude.
 
For people sake, i hope this storm will safely move OTS and lets move on with fall
 
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