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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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deltadog03 said:
That looks def a trend south this run. Plenty of time tho
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Your right, plenty of time for it to go either way. Euro has been sticking to its guns for that area for awhile now, Gulf/Southeast Coast solution
 
Shawn said:
Actually looking at real frames, looks like it's gonna scrape/miss the majority of SC as it starts hooking to a NE motion off the coast!
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Yep its acually moving turning NE at the very end im not sure it would have hit anything that run

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pcbjr said:
Yeah - well I live here and study these buggers ... not out of idle curiosity, either ... :cool:
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Lol, i got ya man. Im from there also. I hope this bugger goes OTS for anyone sake
 
Taylor said:
Most tropical models favor the GFS track through 132hrs. They either have it passing through, or north of the 20N/60W crosshair. The EURO, CMC, and HWRF pass it several degrees south of 20N at the same time.
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Back on this subject because it is a very noticeable, and significant difference between models over the next 132 hours. But, you can see that the last 4 runs of the GFS, and tropical models have trended south closer toward the EURO, CMC, and HWRF.

gfstrend.gif


tropicaltrend.gif
 
Can anyone generate an old/analog map or whatever based off this? This is all I really can come across... and the setup is different of course.. but I'd like to compare and not sure of all the websites to use to do it: 00z 21 September 1989

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accu35 said:
Lol, i got ya man. Im from there also. I hope this bugger goes OTS for anyone sake
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Just purely for the sake of hypothetical and clinical discussion ... Can you imagine the carnage if a 920 came in say at Deerfield Beach and cruised the peninsula and exited around Jax to St. Mary's at say, perhaps a 960? Take that last run of the Euro a couple hundred or less miles west ... o_O
Just for thought ...
 
DustinWX said:
What do you base the gulf idea on?
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Im not saying it will enter the gulf, but the trend over the last few days from the euro/eps has been hovering and camped around that general area. Gfs has been all over. I hope its fish for sure, but this could be a scary situation if this south trend continues
 
Arcc said:
Not on that run it isn't. ULL providing the weakness and with the ridge in that position, it would drive that joker inland.
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Im talking about the end solution not that run . Speed of the system , trough and ACTUAL ridge strength will obviously play a roll . But a final offshore solution is very possible

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Storm5 said:
Im talking about the end solution not that run . Speed of the system , trough and ACTUAL ridge strength will obviously play a roll . But a final offshore solution is very possible

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I know, but I don't see a way the end solution of that run is close to staying offshore unless the model would do something quirky. That run would probably plow Irma right into the SC/NC border, possibly the GA/SC border depending on how much that ULL grabs it.
 
Btw, Irma is making a run at cat 4 as we speak. looking fiesty!
 
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