• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Webberweather53 said:
Irma has definitely made a non-negligible wobble to the west the past few hours, circulation back up to about 18N again.
rgb_lalo-animated.gif
Click to expand...
So is it straight west motion?
 
GaWx said:
The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward.
Click to expand...

^I'm embarrassed to say that I erred badly. I thought that the boxes were the standard 5 degrees x 5 degrees. But I now see the latitude intervals of the boxes are only 3 degrees even though the longitudes are 5 degrees. So, the quoted post is flat out wrong. I apologize. This is definitely embarrassing.

So, I thought the top of the box I was analyzing was at 20 N. But the top is at 18 N rather than 20 N. So, with that correction, I can say that the 11 AM NHC position of 17.7 N, 48.4 W, is actually very near the 0Z EPS mean. Furthermore, IF the current westerly movement is more than just a wobble, Irma may actually be heading north of the 0Z EPS mean. Again, sorry about my error.
 
GaWx said:
^I'm embarrassed to say that I erred badly. I thought that the boxes were the standard 5 degrees x 5 degrees. But I now see the latitude intervals of the boxes are only 3 degrees even though the longitudes are 5 degrees. So, the quoted post is flat out wrong. I apologize. This is definitely embarrassing.

So, I thought the top of the box I was analyzing was at 20 N. But the top is at 18 N rather than 20 N. So, with that correction, I can say that the 11 AM NHC position of 17.7 N, 48.4 W, is actually very near the 0Z EPS mean. Furthermore, IF the current westerly movement is more than just a wobble, Irma may actually be heading north of the 0Z EPS mean. Again, sorry about my error.
Click to expand...
Larry,
It takes a big person to admit an error. You're already at the top rung of the ladder; I'm headed to Home Depot to get a taller one for you!
Phil

PS - This thing is a bit unnerving, regardless of exactly where she sits right now ...
 
GaWx said:
^I'm embarrassed to say that I erred badly. I thought that the boxes were the standard 5 degrees x 5 degrees. But I now see the latitude intervals of the boxes are only 3 degrees even though the longitudes are 5 degrees. So, the quoted post is flat out wrong. I apologize. This is definitely embarrassing.

So, I thought the top of the box I was analyzing was at 20 N. But the top is at 18 N rather than 20 N. So, with that correction, I can say that the 11 AM NHC position of 17.7 N, 48.4 W, is actually very near the 0Z EPS mean. Furthermore, IF the current westerly movement is more than just a wobble, Irma may actually be heading north of the 0Z EPS mean. Again, sorry about my error.
Click to expand...
No need to be embarrassed. You contribute so much to this forum and nobody is perfect !
 
If this does end up affecting the FL peninsula I don't see how they're going to evacuate the entire state of FL, that said I think this is going to affect the Carolinas.

I really hope it doesn't but it looks like OTS isn't likely now...
 
If the GFS continues to show a sub 900mb 1-2 days before Irma makes landfall, I'm certainly that it's possible that Irma could indeed fall down to a sub 900mb.


Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If this does end up affecting the FL peninsula I don't see how they're going to evacuate the entire state of FL, that said I think this is going to affect the Carolinas.

I really hope it doesn't but it looks like OTS isn't likely now...
Click to expand...
Doubt the entire peninsula would need evacuation.
Here's a link to Fla Canes - and very few have run the peninsula.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/one-hundred-years-of-hurricanes/
But if the peninsula were to take a hit by something this powerful, at least I know the backroads ...
 
Arcc said:
Yeah OTS is pretty much off the table.
Click to expand...

Not quite yet but if this goes OTS it's going to be painfully slow in doing so and its feasible this could challenge the all time record for individual storm ACE for an Atlantic tropical cyclone if it somehow remains well offshore the entire time...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not quite yet but if this goes OTS it's going to be painfully slow in doing so and its feasible this could challenge the all time record for individual storm ACE for an Atlantic tropical cyclone if it somehow remains well offshore the entire time...
Click to expand...

Oh I agree, just pretty much a remark based on the dwindling possibility due to support of the ridge building overtop.
 
accu35 said:
Its crazy to know the category intensity is lower now then they use to.when Ivan hit us in Pcola it hit as a cat 3 with winds up to 130 mph. But now a cat 4 is 125? When did this change?
Click to expand...
Check a knot to mph conversion calculator.

"HWRF thinks Irma will become a 125 knot category 4 hurricane by tomorrow morning..."
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top