Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Brick Tamland]

Euro run was very scary for SC and NC. Don't like this trend at all.

 

[Metwannabe]

 

[Webberweather53]

The models have trended towards a less dynamic extratropical transition of Sanvu in the western Pacific which means the downstream rossby wave packet is weaker over North America >>> ridge builds in faster >>> Irma a bigger threat to the se us

 

[Storm5]

Lol his cone is massive !!!! How csn anyone take that seriously .

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[WeatherWatch]

Can anyone generate an old/analog map or whatever based off this? This is all I really can come across... and the setup is different of course.. but I'd like to compare and not sure of all the websites to use to do it: 00z 21 September 1989

I found a 500mb map of that storm
Also, check this out
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/HurricaneHugo
(For comparison purposes only)

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[Metwannabe]

I found a 500mb map of that storm
Also, check this out
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/HurricaneHugo
(For comparison purposes only)

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Ridge overtop and ULL to the west.... looks darn familiar.

 

[Storm5]

Euro op gonna be on soutbside of the 12z eps

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[Storm5]

Big NE shift on the 12z eps vs 00z through dah 7

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[Storm5]

12z

00z

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[GaWx]

I found a 500mb map of that storm
Also, check this out
https://www.weather.gov/ilm/HurricaneHugo
(For comparison purposes only)

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Thanks for posting. In Irma's case, there isn't the real strong upper high progged to be centered in the NE US though a new high may rebuild in there. Instead, the strongest nearby upper high looks to be in or near the Bermuda high position (somewhere offshore), thus favoring a more northward movement should Irma be near the Carolinas rather than the NW movement of Hugo based on projections as of now. Now, if Irma were to be approaching, say, S FL, then obviously it could easily be moving NW or even WNW on its approach down there.

Of course, since this is still 9+ days away, the entire progged pattern could end up verifying far differently.

 

[Storm5]

One thimv is for sure a gulf track is becoming much less likely

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[pcbjr]

Do we do this again at 6:00PM Eastern?

 

[Storm5]

Through day 8 lots of eps members start turning north

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[Tarheel1]

Lol his cone is massive !!!! How csn anyone take that seriously .

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That's what she said!
Hugo came into the SC coast on a WNW trajectory and made an almost straight right hand turn to the North at about CAE! It was rough, but it was in September and it was very cool the week after, just off the top of my head! 10 days without power, sucked!

 

[Storm5]

Big Northeast eps turn day 9

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[Metwannabe]

Through day 8 lots of eps members start turning north

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Yeah if any thing it's NE of the op and has shifted NE of the 0z EPS.... still so much time and so many options

 

[Storm5]

Yeah the eps mean is way NE of the OP run offshore

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[Metwannabe]

It's almost funny considering the GFS trended sw and the Euro was sw and now the EPS is ne... haha

 

[Storm5]

And finally day ten

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[Brick Tamland]

Really hope it keeps curving to the NE, but a lot of those tracks are headed right for SC and NC.