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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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I highly doubt Irma will take a track right over NYC. The chance of that happening is very, very, I mean, very rare. By Sunday or Monday, we'll have a better idea of the track of Irma. Typhoon Sanvu is starting it's curvature and will continue to do so over this weekend. The track of Irma beyond the Antilles Islands will be off during this weekend (or at least the early part of this weekend.) As of right now, I still believe that Irma will be south of what the GFS has been projecting. Also, that TUTT low will no longer effect Irma as it pushes off to the west.

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18z GEFS
WnfEALs.gif
 
pcbjr said:
Trying to get dinner ready ... this is not helping ... LOL

On 2nd thought and oh yes - Forgot my own admonition - 10 + days out ... Mex and margarita will be good again ... :D
Click to expand...
You're fine, you are in the bulls-eye this far out.... no sweat enjoy margaritaville
 
11_L_gefs_latest.png


These tracks will be in the Northeast for 00z, just keep changing If it stays like this for the 00z run I will get a little ummm....
 
I wonder if the present strength of the storm affected the runs today. Irma was weaker for the 12Z runs, but 18Z came along and shifted to another impact. I guess it would be a good test of a hypothesis at 0Z. Otherwise, the GEFS agreement is something I feel is scary. They agree too well on a relative path.
 
I mean SE fetch upslope , there would be 10-25"+ of rain with that track and strength and size!!
 
Since the 18z GEFS showed some GA landfalls (which is very rare), I did a quick look and found 3 hurricanes that were Cat. 3 or higher that struck the GA coast and they were...
September 7-12 1854 Hurricane (Cat. 3)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1854/3/track.gif

August 15 - September 2, 1893 Hurricane (Cat. 3) - a.k.a "Sea Islands Hurricane"
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1893/6/track.gif

September 6 - October 6, 1898 Hurricane (Cat. 4)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1898/7/track.gif

NOTE: I didn't post these to say they're analogs for Irma, I just found them to be interesting since GA landfalls are so rare and I was curious if my home state had ever been hit by a major hurricane before.
 
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