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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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pcbjr said:
I'm just not getting the FL connection (and believe me, I'm looking) ... :(
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This florida connection the ensembles never look like this
received_10155569050180930.png
 
Brent said:
This florida connection the ensembles never look like this
received_10155569050180930.png
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Thanks, Brent (I think) ... :confused:

and in the meantime, like we need it, N FL is rockin' https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1138 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017
Alachua FL-
1138 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Central Alachua County in northern Florida...
* Until 245 AM EDT
* At 1137 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen with
an additional 1 to 2 inches likely.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Gainesville, University Of Florida and Gainesville Airport.
 
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Shawn said:
Well. It's not a plotting error. Here is what the spaghetti plot shows at the same time:
gefs_slp_mems_east_33.png
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I know I've said it several times but the size boggles my mind. Some of those have pressure sub-940 for a hundred miles. The area the winds would cause damage even inland would be incredible.
 
Arcc said:
I know I've said it several times but the size boggles my mind. Some of those have pressure sub-940 for a hundred miles. The area the winds would cause damage even inland would be incredible.
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yeah, I've never seen anything like that before on the models and certainly not close to the US.:eek:
 
Did some quick research on when the last time FL, GA, SC and NC was effected by a Cat. 4 and 5 hurricanes.
In FL, the last cat. 4 was hurricane Charley from Aug. 13th, 2004. The last cat. 5 was hurricane Andrew on Aug. 24th, 1992.
Georgia's last major hurricane was an unnamed storm on Oct. 4th, 1898 that was a cat. 4.
NC & SC last major hurricane was, Hazel on Oct. 15th, 1954 as a cat 4.

As you can see, it's been awhile since these states have seen a powerful hurricane. The time may have come around, that it's time for another power hurricane to make it's round, and Irma may be added to the list. So, since it's been awhile, people should not be surprised by what the models have been showing for Irma.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Did some quick research on when the last time FL, GA, SC and NC was effected by a Cat. 4 and 5 hurricanes.
In FL, the last cat. 4 was hurricane Charley from Aug. 13th, 2004. The last cat. 5 was hurricane Andrew on Aug. 24th, 1992.
Georgia's last major hurricane was an unnamed storm on Oct. 4th, 1898 that was a cat. 4.
NC & SC last major hurricane was, Hazel on Oct. 15th, 1954 as a cat 4.

As you can see, it's been awhile since these states have seen a powerful hurricane. The time may have come around, that it's time for another power hurricane to make it's round, and Irma may be added to the list. So, since it's been awhile, people should not be surprised by what the models have been showing for Irma.
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I think you are forgetting Hugo for SC. That was much more recent than 1950. It has been a while for GA though.
 
Moving north now no doubt this run stays offshore of the carolinas

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May head for the NYC area again? I don't like the looks of this, definitely not moving any sort of east at 186
 
I still think that the GFS is 2-3 deg. too far north with Irma. It looks like the ULL is going to fish in Irma over the NE, or even soon as the Mid-Atlantic states from this run.
 
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