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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Into the heart of the beast they go.
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GaWx said:
Great post! The animation shows that the westward shift has been continuous over the course of these last 5 runs and still doesn't show a sign of slowing down. Therefore, I feel like there will likely be more westward shifts in upcoming runs meaning a continued increasing Gulf threat in the near future from the rather low Gulf threat suggested in recent days.
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Getting in to the Gulf intact would be a feat but if it does and maintains ... Yikes. Let's see how well Cedar Key would handle that, b/c in that event, a NE curve would look very possible ...

Oh shoot ... forgot myself --- no recon yet so it's just more pin the tail ...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Are you sure you want it from this storm? I would rather keep my roof, trees, power, gas, and many more things on top of a huge tornado risk than to get a foot in the lake instantly, or something to water the lawn.
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I want to get fringed!
 
hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_43.png
This modle shows hurricane force winds extended out 75 miles away from the center in the Bahamas. Jst WOW!!!
 
TateofGA said:
Into the heart of the beast they go.
0ab9854dc225d3ac9974c9ecea82e000.png



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Yeah, they should have the data by this evening, but I don't think they'll have the data input in by the time 18z starts to roll out. Maybe by 0z the data will be inputted into the models. We'll see as the NHC continues to put out their advisories.

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pcbjr said:
Tell you what Mack - You donate $50.00 to the site and I'll support you getting fringed ...
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BTW - There is an anonymous someone on this Board who has already donated but has challenged an additional 10% against all donations up to $1,000 received by 9/30 (i.e., an additional $100 if we get to $1,000) ...
Anyone ... ?
 
Storm5 said:
I swear listening to people that are wanting this thing in their backyard is sick and makes ZERO sense

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If it don't go in their backyard, they might as well chase Irma, and go into the heart of the storm.

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pcbjr said:
BTW - There is an anonymous someone on this Board who has already donated but has challenged an additional 10% against all donations up to $1,000 received by 9/30 (i.e., an additional $100 if we get to $1,000) ...
Anyone ... ?
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I wouldn't mind a monogrammed cap with the southernwx logo on it! Would be cool to have.
 
NWMSGuy said:
I wouldn't mind a monogrammed cap with the southernwx logo on it! Would be cool to have.
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Sorry - just passing the message along ... they don't trust me with the store ... but a donation will get you more than a hat ... it'll get you continued good discussion at the very least ...
 
pcbjr said:
Sorry - just passing the message along ... they don't trust me with the store ... but a donation will get you more than a hat ... it'll get you continued good discussion at the very least ...
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That's very true! I wouldn't do without this site. A donation from me is very possible, soon! It's well worth it!
 
SD said:
Pm me your cap info

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I need an 8 1/2 fitted! Lots of knowledge in this head! Somebody should chase with the SouthernWx logo on!
 
pcbjr said:
Tell you what Mack - You donate $50.00 to the site and I'll support you getting fringed ...
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Sorry, I work for school district! :)
 
Snippet from the advisory.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.
In fact, ASCAT data that arrived after the issuance of the previous
advisory indicated that the size of the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded, especially over the northern semicircle. As a
result, the initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted
accordingly.
 
SD said:
Is this a purchase request

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Sorry , I'm not a hat guy! But if the track goes over GSP, I'll get y'all some footage!
 
Eye pass 1, seems to support satellite estimates.

212700 1726N 04949W 7000 02775 9588 +171 +116 141029 034 033 003 00
212730 1727N 04948W 6969 02827 9606 +165 +116 144042 046 038 002 00
212800 1729N 04947W 6966 02852 9641 +151 +123 141058 061 054 004 00
212830 1731N 04946W 6983 02857 9681 +139 +136 142072 077 085 023 00
212900 1733N 04945W 6957 02925 9718 +139 +136 138088 090 098 035 00
212930 1735N 04944W 6953 02968 9782 +118 //// 134086 090 098 036 01
213000 1737N 04942W 6953 02998 9836 +104 //// 128095 096 087 052 01
213030 1739N 04941W 6965 03016 9865 +110 +103 125093 095 081 039 00
213100 1740N 04940W 6967 03034 9889 +110 +097 128087 090 069 014 00
 
Shane brings up a good point the storm is already North of model guidance so we could easily see a shift back to the NE

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Where did opal originate from in '96?(wasn't it?). Only storm I can recall that I experienced hurricane force gusts up this way (low range ones) and had no power for school almost 2 weeks. That was a mess. Keep Irma away!


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Unless N corrections start happening, this is gonna end up in the gulf, if trends continue the next few days! Maybe fresh data fine the hurricane hunters will help pin down a track!?
 
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