Brent
Member
What on earth
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
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NWMSGuy
Member
I'm a few pages behind now but I was questioning earlier whether track 3 was plausible.This map was made from Scott from Weather Optics. I'm going with a path between 3 and 2 from his map.
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whatalife
Moderator
What on earth
Well that looks ominous. Still a long way to go.
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Either the GRADS (model plot program) got wonked out or, the ensembles are all very much in agreement with a very strong system. I'll go with the later.What on earth
In fact, I'll ask Ryan and see.
Brent
Member
So the hmon went all in 
yes that is 175 kt or about 200 mph at 850 mb
yes that is 175 kt or about 200 mph at 850 mb
pcbjr
Member
Promise?If those tracks are correct, Shetley and I , would never mention rain again!
pcbjr
Member
Yes indeed!
Brent
Member
The gfs ensembles were very bad for florida as ominous as I've ever seen
If they're in that kind of agreement to generate an overlapping map like that in regards to position and strength, we have a big problem. Hopefully we'll have an answer soon.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The surface has 145 mph. The bad thing is that if Irma gets those in the upper levels that far out in the water, it could easily become a cat 5.So the hmon went all in
ForsythSnow
Moderator
In about 2 hours or so we should have an answer indeed. Let's just hope it was a mess up. If not....
BHS1975
Member
Looks like it's starting to turn wsw.
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pcbjr
Member
In all seriousness, and not rhetorical, more ominous than Andrew, Charlie, Frances and/or Jeanne (just to name a few recent ones)?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Down to 115 mph as another ERC sets in.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Euro still favored, track a bit north.
pcbjr
Member
Like ...Euro still favored, track a bit north.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
Have a great evening Folks!
We'll see what happens tomorrow (weather and football) ...
It did well with Harvey's strength, I believe? It was showing crazy strengthening for Harvey and most ignored it.So the hmon went all in
Brent
Member
If they are correct a very large version of Andrew/Charley, both were small
Fortunately its 8 days out
pcbjr
Member
With you on the 8 days ...
I'm just not getting the FL connection (and believe me, I'm looking) ...
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