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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Big southwest shift on this EPS run, boy I really hope the southern end of the suite doesn't verify because if this runs into either Hispaniola and Cuba that could put Louisiana and Texas into the mix...
eps_slp_mems_swatl_28.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Big southwest shift on this EPS run, boy I really hope the southern end of the suite doesn't verify because if this runs into either Hispaniola and Cuba that could put Louisiana and Texas into the mix...
View attachment 1059
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I absolutely hate that look. Too many members headed for the Gulf. Unfortunately, the EPS and Euro OP disagree. However, I fear the EPS is a bit more reliable and consistent than the OP. :(
 
ForsythSnow said:
I absolutely hate that look. Too many members headed for the Gulf. Unfortunately, the EPS and Euro OP disagree. However, I fear the EPS is a bit more reliable and consistent than the OP. :(
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Eps mean generally scores highest

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Yeah the Euro operational is on the eastern edge of the envelope for now wrt the EPS... The southern tier of members is definitely the most worrisome, again, that could put areas already devastated by Harvey into the mix w/ Irma...
eps_slp_mems_watl_31.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the Euro operational is on the eastern edge of the envelope for now wrt the EPS... The southern tier of members is definitely the most worrisome, again, that could put areas already devastated by Harvey into the mix w/ Irma...
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I wonder how quickly the western members have the trough exiting. Or is it weakening from the islands

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Just a guess because there is way too much uncertainty at this time but I have a bad feeling this could be a Hazel 1954 redux. :(
 
21192898_10155487637502367_7835586665380692087_n.jpg
look at the difference
 
Shane makes a good point about the trof. I could see a euro like solution. This run. Initially I thought it looked weird and not right, but good point SD
 
MichaelJ said:
Just a guess because there is way too much uncertainty at this time but I have a bad feeling this could be a Hazel 1954 redux. :(
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Everyone in the US from Texas to Maine should be monitoring the progress of this storm because there really is a legitimate amount of uncertainty atm to substantiate all these areas as potentially being threatened by Irma.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Everyone in the US from Texas to Maine should be monitoring the progress of this storm because there really is a legitimate amount of uncertainty atm to substantiate all these areas as potentially being threatened by Irma.
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So well said ... so true ... Thanks Webb, b/c lots of folks hang on what you have to say ... ;)
 
ForsythSnow said:
The shift is getting quite scary. Still, any solution is possible. We should get a better idea when the planes start actually doing stuff. Still then, I think by the time it reaches Puerto Rico area, we should have a much better idea.
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Thank you!
 
Euro EPS southern cluster and loop accu35 showing the shift gotta raise some eyebrows...as Shane several others posted need that recon in there get some data to input into model data so maybe we can get little more clarity on upper levels
 
I need the rain!
 
accu35 said:
c2525b7b05397b59db9beb5c668dc5329632467902f9811a000c98e5e84dc067.gif
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Great post! The animation shows that the westward shift has been continuous over the course of these last 5 runs and still doesn't show a sign of slowing down. Therefore, I feel like there will likely be more westward shifts in upcoming runs meaning a continued increasing Gulf threat in the near future from the rather low Gulf threat suggested in recent days. That's not to say that FL and the east coast of the US don't remain threatened.
 
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