Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Brent]

this could be way west

 

[accu35]

I believe gfs is gonna be south this run. But i can be wrong

 

[Brent]

earlier the GFS wasn't even in the Bahamas at all

Absurd

 

[Arcc]

No way it hits the US if the trough stays where it's at 132hr.

 

[Storm5]

A northward turn is now open for the taking

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[deltadog03]

A northward turn is now open for the taking

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Thing is, how fast does the ridge build back in.

 

[Storm5]

Thing is, how fast does the ridge build back in.

It's weakening almost past 70w at 156

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[Storm5]

Trough really lifting out

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[Storm5]

Starting a slow northward turn at 168

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[Meteorologist1999]

I got feeling 00z Gfs comes right into SC

 

[Brent]

this run is too far west to miss imo it would have to go east to miss at least the OBX

 

[Storm5]

this run is too far west to miss imo it would have to go east to miss at least the OBX

It's gonna be close , it's already starting to turn at 168. Gonna be really close to eastern NC

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[accu35]

Whether its OTS or not, its much closer to Florida coast line

 

[Brent]

885 mb at 168

if this somehow misses its gonna be scary close

 

[Storm5]

Webber talked about this two days ago that if it turns it's gonna be a slow process

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[Storm5]

Eastern NC in the crosshair this run

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[Storm5]

Incominh

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[Brent]

absolute monster on the simulated IR satellite huge hurricane

 

[Storm5]

Thank God it's 8-10 days out cause this run will be nasty for NC

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[whatalife]

Thank God it's 8-10 days out cause this run will be nasty for NC

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891


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[Arcc]

Looks like NC/SC border.

 

[Storm5]

00z CMC landfall southern florida

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[Storm5]

Gifs landfall SW North Carolina

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[Storm5]

Gifs landfall SW North Carolina

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[Brent]

this run would have the NC coast rearranged...

 

[Storm5]

So the GFS and CMC shift SW

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[Meteorologist1999]

00z CMC landfall southern florida

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WOW GFS AND CMC TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH A LOT!! SC/NC Landfall!!

 

[Brent]

yeah the GFS was in NJ last night... I just wonder where the west shifts will end at this point

 

[accu35]

Oh ok gfs.

 

[Arcc]

I give it credit, even as wrong as it could be, I've never seen a global hit the US with that pressure. Inland a little ways at 905mb.

 

[Tarheel1]

Somebody wake up SD!

 

[Brent]

GFS is stalling "Jose" over Puerto Rico this run

 

[Storm5]

CMC goes up through east central Georgia . I bet we see even more ensemble members shift SW

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[Storm5]

Somebody wake up SD!

It's one run showing something 8-10 days out . SD knows better than to freak out

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[Cary_Snow95]

An 890 mb hurricane coming into NC is unthinkable. It kind of boggles my mind that the GFS has consistently shown these crazy pressures

 

[Arcc]

yeah the GFS was in NJ last night... I just wonder where the west shifts will end at this point

*cough* Florida..

 

[WeatherWatch]

Big south shifts via GFS over the past 4 runs.

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[Brent]

*cough* Florida..

you know the week out bullseyes never seem to verify, I wouldn't be at all shocked if it winds up in Florida, there really hasn't been a bunch of doomy runs for them like elsewhere... which you usually want to see at this range

 

[Storm5]

*cough* Florida..

Which there are plenty of ensemble members that support your Florida call from a few days ago

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[accu35]

Im a true wennie, especially my winterstorms, but i hope this dangerous storm will go OTS.