Storm5
Member
Its trying to plow right into the ridge 
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol it's the GFS what else do you expect...
Big take away for me that run was the trough lifting out early, once that happens many options are back on the table..... still long way to go with this one. Webb models still having difficulty figuring out the H5 pattern due to recurving Sanvu, gonna see some erratic model output for a few days?
Brent
Member
Rhode Island it is at 300 hours
Wonky way to get there
Wonky way to get there
Well New England region is getting slammed again.
Brent
Member
takes 12 1/2 days on the GFS to hit...
no thanks lol
no thanks lol
Congrats! Let them have it!
Yep, same old same old, the models love over doing the eastern trough. I think Florida is in the cross hairs eventually.
Storm5
Member
I bet the euro stays on the southern side of the envelope
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pcbjr
Member
This is just so much fun ...
WeatherWatch
Member
This map was made from Scott from Weather Optics. I'm going with a path between 3 and 2 from his map.
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pcbjr
Member
Took the afternoon off to relax after a long week and with a big one next week, and this just blew the early Friday "happy hour"This map was made from Scott from Weather Optics. I'm going with a path between 3 and 2 from his map.
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... LOL
pcbjr
Member
Wife looked at this and just said, "Hope you have lubricant for your chain saw." Notice the singular and not the plural (?) ...This map was made from Scott from Weather Optics. I'm going with a path between 3 and 2 from his map.
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WeatherWatch
Member
Also, from that map, imo, the most realsitic path is between 3 and 2 atm. I made a map last night and I'm still confident enough that I'm going with this track.
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GFS is not very smart with that run. Bothers me seeing it so close to the SC coast with no real place to go with the ridge building overtop... On to the Euro.
I just dont see how that system in the SE doesn't influence it more with that kind of ridge building in and basically trapping it. These things are supposed to take the path of least resistance I thought?
I just dont see how that system in the SE doesn't influence it more with that kind of ridge building in and basically trapping it. These things are supposed to take the path of least resistance I thought?
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, this pattern is largely hinging on the recurvature of Sanvu and it's extratropical transition and we won't know for at least another few days what the general z500 is gonna look like downstream over North America
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Two GEFS camps: One goes straight through Florida, the other is a scrape the NE one.
SW shift overall on the GEFS though.... not a shift in the right directionTwo GEFS camps: One goes straight through Florida, the other is a scrape the NE one.
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