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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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ForsythSnow said:
As I said, it looks just like yesterday's run. This was yesterday.
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See you guys in December when my power is back

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Meteorologist1999 said:
What you mean??
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What I'm essentially saying here regarding the GFS Ensemble's under dispersion bias is that they tend to produce solutions that are too similar not only to one another but also the operational model. Not to mention, with a lower number of members (20) than the ECMWF (50+ control), this often means the spread in this ensemble suite is likely too small and therefore is susceptible to more run-to-run variability...
 
Storm5 said:
Special announcement coming at 11 eastern tonight regarding Mondays Irma live show

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I'll read about it tomorrow... don't you ever sleep?

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Webberweather53 said:
What I'm essentially saying here regarding the GFS Ensemble's under dispersion bias is that they tend to produce solutions that are too similar not only to one another but also the operational model. Not to mention, with a lower number of members (20) than the ECMWF (50+ control), this often means the spread in this ensemble suite is likely too small and therefore is susceptible to more run-to-run variability...
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Are the current GEFS members run on the newest version of the operational GFS? Logic would say so but I vaguely recall there being a lag for past op GFS upgrades.
 
Really starting to worry about this. Seems less likely that it will go out to sea, and a lot of the model tracks having it hitting NC as a major hurricane, and some with a Fran like track.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Really starting to worry about this. Seems less likely that it will go out to sea, and a lot of the model tracks having it hitting NC as a major hurricane, and some with a Fran like track.
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Less likely ?? Way too early for Iikely or less likely track ideas

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Brick Tamland said:
Really starting to worry about this. Seems less likely that it will go out to sea, and a lot of the model tracks having it hitting NC as a major hurricane, and some with a Fran like track.
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It's still 8 days away and the Euro was OTS at 12z...

I'm still giving it another day or two before sounding too many alarms

I will agree there are a lot of reasons to be disturbed but its not like its guaranteed to even remotely verify
 
Storm5 said:
Less likely ?? Way too early for Iikely or less likely track ideas

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Lol. You've use the terminology yourself. In example, "less likely it'll go into the Gulf".
 
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And now I really wish I had gone to the OBX this summer. Now the kids are in school and have flag football games every Saturday until the end of October. Already sad we didn't get to go this summer, and I am going to be really upset if Irma wrecks it.
 
Here is my break down map of Irma. Remember, the cone does not represent the size of Irma.
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NHC keeps Irma at 95 knots at the 11pm advisory. The day 4-5 cone once again was nudged southwestward...

"Tonight's NHC forecast was adjusted a just little to the south of the previous one due to another small shift of the guidance envelope."
 
Brick Tamland said:
And now I really wish I had gone to the OBX this summer. Now the kids are in school and have flag football games every Saturday until the end of October. Already sad we didn't get to go this summer, and I am going to be really upset if Irma wrecks it.
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Lol! Flag Football! :(
 
WeatherWatch said:
Here is my break down map of Irma. Remember, the cone does not represent the size of Irma.
827090cf2c8b297d08221188bcb72fb2.jpg


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I don't think you quite understand where Irma is right now. Your map puts it 3 days ahead, and also it seems way too small. The map should have the cone much further back by almost 1000 miles and also much, much larger. Also, your statistic is just stated, it isn't backed up by anything else. You could claim the ever fluctuating models or claim analogs and the current setup.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Lol! Flag Football! :(
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What's wrong with elementary age kids playing flag football? And one of them is my daughter in 2nd grade. Besides, their games today were better than the Carolina game, and I'm a Carolina fan.
 
The NHC
forecast, which in fact is similar to the previous one, continues to
be a blend of the statistical models and the explosive strengthening
shown by the regional hurricane and global models.

they actually mention vaguely the really insane models lol
 
So this deep layer ridge steering it now, the longer it hangs around and the further west it goes it’s gonna take a super trof to kick this OTS
 
Brick Tamland said:
What's wrong with elementary age kids playing flag football? And one of them is my daughter in 2nd grade. Besides, their games today were better than the Carolina game, and I'm a Carolina fan.
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Yeah, the Carolina game today, looked like a bad flag football game. Flag football just doesn't even closely relate to real football, and my child played 1 year, and was worse off for it, IMO! In SC you can play tackle football, starting as young as 6
 
IMO, trough strength has been modeled too strong and or deep, the whole summer! Numerous times, they have been forecasted to clear my area and usher in " cooler" dryer air, a lot of them never made it this far south, just a tidbit of thought on the trough in question
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't think you quite understand where Irma is right now. Your map puts it 3 days ahead, and also it seems way too small. The map should have the cone much further back by almost 1000 miles and also much, much larger. Also, your statistic is just stated, it isn't backed up by anything else. You could claim the ever fluctuating models or claim analogs and the current setup.
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I do understand of where Irma is. Correct, my map is 3 days ahead, it's an extended outlook. The cone starts out small, cause the center of Irma is likely to be in that area of the Antilles. The cone becomes more wide due to uncertainty of where the center of Irma may go. I think it's clear enough that, Irma will likely go between the east coast and Bermuda. Irma may lean towards Bermuda more, or it could possibly lean more towards the east coast, it all depends on the ridge and the trough.
 
I promise Irma is getting closer to the islands each run
 
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